Letters to the Editor
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a.k.a. Bobby Cannavale
Unless you meant Bobby Carnevale the cameraman (according to IMDb), I think you meant Bobby Cannavale.
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Bad numbers
The percentage of registered Democrats expected to caucus also can't be right. There are more than 600,000 registered Democrats in Iowa. If even 50% showed up (Walsh's DM Register number), that would be 300,000. That's way higher than even the wildest predictions (~220,000).
I suspect these numbers (83% and 50%) are the percentages the pollsters use to guess how many of those polled who _said_ they'd show up actually _will_ show up. The number of registered Democrats polled who _said_ they'd show up might be 30% (picking a number out of the air); take 83% or 50% of that fraction, and you have the pollsters' estimate for the real attendance rate (25% or 15%, using the 30% example).
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Yeah Right Joan
Just happens that the Clinton party is in your hotel. What a suprising coincidence. Too bad for you. Nice pick (why don't you just admit it?) Enjoy the trip in the cold weather to the winning party in a different hotel. Or will you claim logistical errors and miss that too?
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Iowa is showing how Obama could build a solid Demo majority
I've been calling and going door-to-door for Obama in the Iowa town where I live.
I am amazed at the broad support he has earned. My first doorknock on New Year's Day was an 82-year-old Republican woman. Yes, she was for Obama. Yes, she was definitely going to the Democratic caucus.
Today, I just "carknocked" 37 cars at our elementary school waiting to pick kids up. More than half said they were for Obama and were at least considering caucusing.
The big majority of these folks have never attended their first caucus. Whether they actually show up or not tonight at the caucus is anybody's guess.
If they do, I think they will just be the icing on top of Obama strong showing. The story of this campaign is not about a fight between Democratic insiders against all the Obama newbies, independents and Republicans.
Obama has won over many regular Democrats like me. We will be the core of his support at the caucuses because we have caucused before.
And many of those caucusing for Clinton, one of the nation's most prominent Democrats, or Edwards, the 2004 VP nominee, have Obama as their second choice.
If Obama is the nominee, I think Iowa Democrats will be excited to join with Obama independents and Obama Republicans to work their hearts out for him.
That is great news for everyone who wants progressive change. Obama is showing us he can build the majority to make it happen.
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"If the independent surge materializes and produces a big Obama win..."
then I'm sure you'll have plenty to say, Joan, about why it doesn't mean anything to Hillary's inevitable victory...
Still wondering why you're acting like you're "covering" this as a journalist, when you might as well be hanging with the Clinton staffers, buttering them up for a potential spot on the Transition Team.
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I'm pretty sure your math is wrong
I'm guessing that you don't mean "percentage of registered Democrats who show up." You mean "percentage of those who show up who are registered Democrats."
Journalists either have to get better at math, or they need to get editors or even proofreaders who are good at math.
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Salon a hotbed of Clintonist fellow-travellers?
Salon has a history of centrist Democratic leanings, which (unsurprisingly) have led it to Clintonophilia on many occasions.
So what?
I don't agree with all of that agenda. I would have liked (and still want) Salon to be more critical of the assumptions of centrist liberal thinking. But just because I disagree with some of the magazine's views doesn't mean that the whole editorial staff are Clinton fifth columnists.
Let's everyone repeat together: "likes Hillary Clinton more than I" is not equivalent to "is a wholly-owned Clinton propaganda mill."
Heck, if it were then every time I was out with nice, decent liberals I would be paralyzed by the constant fear that they were secretly on the payroll of the Clinton campaign, to a man, woman, and child.
And that's crazy talk. We all agree about that, right?
Don't we?
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From Joan Walsh
Yes, I definitely meant percentage of those who show up who are registered Democrats. I'm a newbie at the blog thing, too, relatively -- sometimes I miss having an editor!
Also, an editor would have caught Cannavale -- I knew that, I grew up with Carnavales, and I regress when I'm tired.
More later, thanks for your patience!
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Bobby C
I think she means this Bobby C:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bobby_Cannavale
He's simply one of the best actors out there at the moment. He could have been pigeonholed as a "pretty boy," but he's far to real and talented for that.
If you haven't seen the movie The Station Agent starring Cannavale with Peter Dinklage and Patricia Clarkson, add it to your Netflix queue NOW! Amazing performances all around.
I rarely feel "starstruck" when I meet celebrities in a social setting. I think that Bobby C is somebody this straight male would stammer in front of.
It's great to hear that he's involved with the political process. "Pretty boy" ? Ha!
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My last thouguts
After all the pundents predicting a slam duck for Hillary, now taht they are actually on eh gournd in I, they see wah tis relly hapening. On PBS they jsut admitted Hillary isnot taht experinced, soe see hwer in 3rdpalce.
Predict Obama will win. He will get the votes of the Democrats who dont get their 15%.
People in IA are actually knowledgeable about the candidates an get more exposure to the candidates. Here is Ca the 33% that actually show up at he polls go there pretty uninformed. The worst are the voters between 40-55.
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Joan: I hope you have some Black staffers to Iowa right?? You did bring James right??
I just got finish watching 3 screens of all white talking heads except for the token Gwen Ifill on PBS.
I am going to make this my lead comments tonite when I speak at a function... It is truly tragic that given the poetential historic nature of Obama's election we have such a blackout in the press on the coverage...
Truth is this blackout is almost as lethal as Iowa's 95% all white caucus ritual. We have to do better I did not realize how significant I was tonite but after watching the all white all night pundits covering this event... WOW!!
I hope I inspire some kids to become journalists tonite.... we need them more than ever now..
Keeping hope alive...