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Friday, August 8, 2008 12:00 AM

Salon Radio: Anthrax edition

Two experts -- one in bioweapons and one in journalism -- explore the numerous, still unanswered questions in the anthrax case.

The letters thread is now closed.

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Saturday, August 9, 2008 08:27 PM

-- L.W.M.

Sorry for the delay. I was visiting with a few of the 250 or so people who may -- or may not -- one day attend my funeral.

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"I was responding to Susan then, wasn't I?" -- L.W.M. @ 05:08 PM

You prefaced your comment with a quote from me but no matter.

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"I just see that many people here came up with a particular "theory" and are now seeing the "evidence" that "proves" their theory. I'm only arguing that in my opinion the poor man was unbalanced, troubled and "not well" and had a dark side that could make him capable of this type of act. He was conflicted and had some difficulty relating to people. I get that from those who were at his funeral, which brings me to another point. It was closed to the press and the public. No one really knows what went on in there or who or how many attended."

Oh those others, picking and choosing the "evidence" that "proves" their "theories". They choose to believe the news report that 250 people attended the funeral, but you choose to believe "No one really knows what went on in there or who or how many attended." They choose to believe the many people who've been quoted saying that they don't think Ivins did it, you choose to believe that "those who were at his funeral" feel "he was conflicted and had some difficulty relating to people."

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I've embraced no theory. -- L.W.M.@05:08 PM

I thay you can't be theoryless!

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"I have concluded that the reports of his emotional and psychological troubles are legit and probably much worse than we realize. See how that works?"-- L.W.M. @ 05:08 PM

Yes I do. You've finalized your opinion but left room for evidence that further proves it.

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"Consider the many people he must have known that didn't attend his funeral. Do you suppose it was more than 250?-- L.W.M. @ 05:21 PM

Hello Fox News! "Sure 200,000 Germans went to hear Barack Obama speak, but look how many Germans stayed home!" Yer killin' me!

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This graph I wrote...

"BTW, I'm sorry I can't agree with the theory you've obviously embraced that the 250 people who came to Ivins' funeral are part of a conspiracy to discredit his psychiatrist. That's just nutbar."

...wasn't intended to summarize a theory that I believed you actually had, but to illustrate the absurdity of how my position had been reframed.

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That's enough slap and tickle for one day, I'm off to bed.

Saturday, August 9, 2008 08:52 PM

LWM - Re: Diagnosis

DSM will be revised again in a few years and we'll all have to learn new diagnostic terms. I'm not a clinician and I haven't examined him even if I was. But I'm not going to leap to the conclusion that any diagnosis by of the professionals who have examined him in a clinical setting is being fabricated to frame him. That's just silly

May i just mention that we have not seen documentation of any expert opinion in regard to any of Ivins' "diagnosis" much less the opportunity to see how well such evaluations held up under cross-examination at trial. You'll note that in the documents released by the DOJ, the FBI's psychiatrist did not offer a diagnosis but made a weasely statement about what Ivins "might" do "if" he had committed the crime. Any diagnoses thus far mentioned were reported by Ivins or Duley (who may well have been fed the information by the FBI).

Re: DSM. If you were familiar with the reference over the years you would realize that there aren't likely to be massive changes. With each edition, a few terms may be dropped, a few added, but mainly diagnoses and criteria are tweaked.

Saturday, August 9, 2008 09:17 PM

@sean mcbride - well, that was pure speculation

Actually, I was just trying to point out how easy it is to come up with various scenarios based on purely circumstantial evidence.

We could also guess that the real culprit was a so-called "lone wolf terrorist" employed at Dugway or Battelle, who managed to steal some of the prepared dry anthrax (of various grades, apparently), and then mailed it. We could further guess that this was discovered by the FBI, but that the investigation was lead in a new direction to avoid embarrassing the public-private partnerships.

Or, we can guess that Saddam Hussein (or Osama bin Ladin) carefully cultivated a mole inside Dugway/Battelle for decades, waiting for just the right moment. And so on. Perhaps Emergent Biosolutions did it, in their hollow volcano island, after stealing strains and technology from Battelle, in order to get more vaccine contracts. Maybe Bruce Ivins really went crazy after 9/11, whipped up a spore prep within 6 days and drove across the state to mail it, and then did it again on Oct 9, with no one noticing. And so on.

The only evidence recovered has been the letters and the spores from them - no human DNA evidence, no witnesses or sightings. This means the forensics takes center stage in any effort to figure out who did it.

As far as the genetic tests go, what were the samples that went into the FBIR, the repository of anthrax-related samples that was screened for the presence of the letter strain? What was the unknown, unpublished method that was used? Why no whole genome sequencing and matching to the letter?

There are also the flaws in the immediate response. All in all, people should have been warned that the powder had a high contamination potential. This would have meant admitting that the powder was a top-secret military preparation - something that Army scientists confirmed, but which Battelle scientists were denying right after the anthrax attacks. This probably lead to preventable deaths:

http://archives.cnn.com/2001/HEALTH/conditions/11/07/911.anthrax/index.html

Ike Solem

Saturday, August 9, 2008 09:33 PM

Duley Speaks

Some questions answered, some new ones to ask.

Ivins was in the hospital for two weeks? Wow. The FBI does not look very good at all.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/08/09/AR2008080902108_pf.html

Saturday, August 9, 2008 10:08 PM

WaPo article: Problem for Duley

Duley said, "The FBI didn't tell me anything."

Then how did she know that Ivins was about to be indicted for five murders? Lucky guess?

Another question: What did her dad do in the war? There are plenty of people in every embassy who are connected to the CIA. So maybe she's a second-generation spook. An asset to be used.

She's come out of hiding. These death threats of Ivins were allegedly told in front of a group therapy session. Where's the rest of the group? No one's come forth in a couple of weeks to tell their harrowing story of sitting next to the mad murderer in group therapy.

I suspect after her brief sitting in front of an incurious WaPo reporter she disappears again.

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