Obama is very intelligent and informed. Obama probably believes in the NIE -- just as most informed people on that subject would. But, and this is controversial I know, he is under the sway of AIPAC, the Israel firsters on his staff, in his circle, and of course in the Congress and the Senate. Israel has, for a lot of reasons, has come to the consensus that Iran does indeed pose a threat to them -- if not existential -- as some truly believe, then certainly in the form of aid and encouragement to Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria.

The military, government and to a fair degree, public consensus in Israel, is that a preemptive attack on Iran would be "good for Israel". To the extent that Obama actually believes in the rather silly idea that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, he is either a fool or a tool. He is not a fool.

Whatever the facts of the matter, strategic thinkers know that the MAD doctrine of mutual assured destruction is always in effect. Iran knows very well that it cannot attack Israel with nuclear weapons; that this would be national suicide. Israeli response aside, they would be vaporized immediately by America, if not others. Contrary to the nonsense about shaheeds and Palestinians using babies as human shields, the Iranians love their children and their own lives just as much as we do. There will be no Iranian nuclear strike on Israel. It is a ridiculous stupid idea on many many levels.

The best possible face I can put on this is that Obama is maintaining this intransigent, irrational, and contrary-to-the-facts position simply as a bargaining chip, if and when he "talks" to the Iranians.

$300M is a lot of scratch for playing Divide and Conquer with religious fundamentalists in Iran. I wonder if Bush's secret findings, and the Dem led Congress' bipartisan authorization of $300 Million, are motivating factors?

http://www.counterpunch.org/andrew05022008.html

May 2, 2008

A CounterPunch Exclusive

Democrats Okay Funds for Covert Ops

Secret Bush "Finding" Widens War on Iran

By ANDREW COCKBURN

Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, "unprecedented in its scope."

Bush’s secret directive covers actions across a huge geographic area – from Lebanon to Afghanistan – but is also far more sweeping in the type of actions permitted under its guidelines – up to and including the assassination of targeted officials. This widened scope clears the way, for example, for full support for the military arm of Mujahedin-e Khalq, the cultish Iranian opposition group, despite its enduring position on the State Department's list of terrorist groups.

Similarly, covert funds can now flow without restriction to Jundullah, or "army of god," the militant Sunni group in Iranian Baluchistan – just across the Afghan border -- whose leader was featured not long ago on Dan Rather Reports cutting his brother in law's throat.

Other elements that will benefit from U.S. largesse and advice include Iranian Kurdish nationalists, as well the Ahwazi arabs of south west Iran. Further afield, operations against Iran's Hezbollah allies in Lebanon will be stepped up, along with efforts to destabilize the Syrian regime.

All this costs money, which in turn must be authorized by Congress, or at least a by few witting members of the intelligence committees. That has not proved a problem. An initial outlay of $300 million to finance implementation of the finding has been swiftly approved with bipartisan support, apparently regardless of the unpopularity of the current war and the perilous condition of the U.S. economy.

Until recently, the administration faced a serious obstacle to action against Iran in the form of Centcom commander Admiral William Fallon, who made no secret of his contempt for official determination to take us to war. In a widely publicized incident last January, Iranian patrol boats approached a U.S. ship in what the Pentagon described as a "taunting" manner. According to Centcom staff officers, the American commander on the spot was about to open fire. At that point, the U.S. was close to war. He desisted only when Fallon personally and explicitly ordered him not to shoot. The White House, according to the staff officers, was "absolutely furious" with Fallon for defusing the incident.

Because AIPAC owns him and Congress.

You poor deluded fools who voted for Obama thinking he was for peace.

Idiots.

should clarify that this is an American variant of Christianity just as your American democracy seems more like a plutocracy than the idealised USA as propounded by your founding fathers. Are you even aware that there's a world beyond America and that there are Maronite Christians in Lebanon, Orthodox Christians in Greece and also in Russia........The world is much more complex than the children's picture book that is interminably suggested by far too many Americans.

The Guantanamo stain is intolerable. I don't know why Obama has backed off this but it makes me mad! I hope with enough pressure, he will fulfill his campaign promise on this one. Otherwise, he risks having a reputation of speaking with a forked tongue and losing support of his base.

Because the U.S. is...

"...an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality -- judiciously, as you will -- we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors ... and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do."

In the U.S. government-created reality, Iran is the greatest threat in the whole, wide world.

It used to be Iraq, but then you acted.

Ah, Wallaby, how nice to see you! Wasn't it just two days ago you were threatening us with an indictment from the California AG? What ever happened with that? Still in the works?

I mean, I've seen all the movies. Can I 'leave town'?

And now, here you are, in this den of hate speech, prattling away. Do you always hang out at a site which is, by your own description, "hate speech" and "anti-Semetic"?

Or do you think your grand entrance as Israel's legal avenger endeared you to the posters, and gave your words depth and credibility?

Many posters here are interested in Yiddish. As far as I know, Wallaby is a perfect example of a schlemiel, to start.