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Monday, January 12, 2009 12:00 AM

Obama v. the National Intelligence Estimate on Iran

Last year, the NIE famously concluded with "high confidence" that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program in 2003. Why did Obama say yesterday that Iran is pursuing nuclear weapons?

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  • Monday, January 12, 2009 08:20 AM

    JustinR

    Glenn, are you actually concerned that Obama will attack Iran?

    Of course I'm "concerned." During the campaign, he repeatedly used the standard language for threatening an attack when talking about Iran's nuclear program (that it is unacceptable, that he would use all means at his disposal to prevent it, etc. - those are paraphrases, but the actual quotes are close to it).

    Do I think it's likely that he will? No. Impossible? Hardly. And the fact that he's promoting the central claim that would justify such an attack -- Iran is seeking nuclear weapons and we can't let them have them, it's a top priority, etc. -- should make anyone concerned. I'm not staying up at night worrying about it because I think it's unlikely, but how could anyone not be concerned.

    Do you think - notwithstanding Obama's prior commitments -- that it's basically impossible that Obama would attack Iran, even if they seem close to acquiring a nuclear weapon? If so, what accounts for that impossibility?

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