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a. Iran with a stopped nuclear weapons program; but
b. with good likelihood of achieving enough highly-enriched uranium for a weapon in the next six years, with a small likelihood of achieving this by end of 2009; and
c. just a political decision away from restarting what appears to be a long-term strategic objective of acquiring nuclear weapons; yet
d. perhaps susceptible to some mixture of pressure and reward to abandon the weapons program permanently.
The problem for the American President is to induce Iran to abandon permanently its weapons program. The problem is very much there. Obama's words yesterday certainly do not exhibit the NIE understanding of the Iranian nukes problem.
