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Obama is very intelligent and informed. Obama probably believes in the NIE -- just as most informed people on that subject would. But, and this is controversial I know, he is under the sway of AIPAC, the Israel firsters on his staff, in his circle, and of course in the Congress and the Senate. Israel has, for a lot of reasons, has come to the consensus that Iran does indeed pose a threat to them -- if not existential -- as some truly believe, then certainly in the form of aid and encouragement to Hamas, Hezbollah and Syria.
The military, government and to a fair degree, public consensus in Israel, is that a preemptive attack on Iran would be "good for Israel". To the extent that Obama actually believes in the rather silly idea that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel, he is either a fool or a tool. He is not a fool.
Whatever the facts of the matter, strategic thinkers know that the MAD doctrine of mutual assured destruction is always in effect. Iran knows very well that it cannot attack Israel with nuclear weapons; that this would be national suicide. Israeli response aside, they would be vaporized immediately by America, if not others. Contrary to the nonsense about shaheeds and Palestinians using babies as human shields, the Iranians love their children and their own lives just as much as we do. There will be no Iranian nuclear strike on Israel. It is a ridiculous stupid idea on many many levels.
The best possible face I can put on this is that Obama is maintaining this intransigent, irrational, and contrary-to-the-facts position simply as a bargaining chip, if and when he "talks" to the Iranians.
