Overall, this is hardly what you would expect from a man suspected of attempting to assassinate US Senators and an important journalist who managed to kill 5 people and make a bunch of others extremely ill while doing so. The mental illness part is interesting in that Ivins seeemed to have pretty good insight about what was happening to him and some control over what he was obsessing about In the e-mails to friends and colleagues, he recognized his paranoia for what they were. I suspect that if this were not the case and the paranoia was viewed by him as actual persecution, he would not have been allowed to continue in his job.

He apparently got off on the image of college girls being hazed and having their bottoms spanked or something but again he seemed to have some control over the urges coming out of this obsession too. The FBI/Postal Insepctors only point to some e-mail exchanges about AKK rituals and speculate he might have been behind the spray apinting of a house and car. His anger at the ACLU immediately after 9/11 for its opposition to the Patriot Act and with Leahy and Daschele because they were pro-choice Catholics was shared by millions of Americans. His e-mails about these subjects are not what you'd expect from a man capable of launching an anthrax attack. I have to see a lot more than this affidavit before I will be ready to believe Ivis is the man.

Millions of prolife catholics have the same views about pro choice catholics like Leahy or Daschele he displayed in the e-mails he wrote about this issue.

The genetic analysis method itself is not the problem, it is how it was applied by the FBI, which they are not revealing. All they say is this:

"Four individual, highly sensitive, and specific molecular assays capable of detecting four of the genetic mutations discovered in the Bacillus anthracis used in the mail

attacks have been developed and validated."

To make this all clearer, journalists might want to consider contacting the lead person responsible for the initial genetic analysis and asking for a real expert opinion:

http://pubs.acs.org/subscribe/journals/ancham/80/i13/html/0708feature_keim.html

Feature

Microbial Forensics: DNA Fingerprinting of Bacillus anthracis (Anthrax), July 1, 2008

Paul Keim, Talima Pearson, Richard Okinaka

Northern Arizona University

The whole-genome sequence of the notorious Ames strain allowed the definition of the Ames branch that was 32 SNPs long (out of 990; 32, 36). Because of the conserved nature of this genome and from a purely forensic or typing perspective, the 32 SNP alleles are found only in isolates that are close relatives of the Ames strain. But how close are these strains to the Ames strain, and are any isolates identical to the Ames strain?

Van Ert et al. answered these questions by determining which of these 32 SNPs might be specific to the Ames strain and which might be shared with other isolates (38). An analysis of all 32 SNPs in 11 non-Ames B. anthracis isolates that had been previously placed in the Ames canSNP cluster led to the discovery that 5 of the 32 are unique to the Ames strain...

Only 10 years ago, it would have been nearly impossible to discover five randomly scattered SNP differences between two isolates that were otherwise identical at >5 million nucleotides. Today, rapid PCR-based assays can specifically target these four Ames-specific SNPs in any unknown genome to either include or exclude the sample in a few hours.

This appears to be the method that the FBI used, but unlike in a court of law they don't have to display their results. In addition, the FBI claimed in 2005 that the anthrax was not silica-coated, which is contradicted in their current report.

They come right out and say it, despite what Ed Lake has been preaching for years about it. This is a pretty critical point, isn't it?

However, why didn't they send samples out to others to do the typing of whatever it was they claim they found in Ivin's flask? Let alone the fact that noone was being investigated at Fort Detrick on 9/18 or 10/9, so how can they be so sure of what was and what was not in the flask at that time?

And what is their theory for how Bruce Ivins managed to prepare silica-coated absolutely pure, highly weaponized anthrax, even if he had the strain?

Finally, have they tested the strains at Dugway and Battelle in order to see how they compare to the letters? (assuming the evidence from Dugway and Battelle still exists, or if the FBI even issued a subpoena for Battelle or Dugway - they refuse to say one way or the other.) If they can't rule out others having it, based on their initial analysis, this means little if anything - as did the lyophilizer story.

Can you believe that? Dugway and Battelle are not even being investigated. This is nothing but a coverup, I'm afraid.

Ike Solem

ike_solm@hotmail.com

If you remember (and Tom Sawyer is something no American boy should ever, ever forget) it was Tom's job to whitewash the fence and he conned the others into doing it by making fence-painting atractive. "Work?" said Tom, "Why, this ain't work"

Perhaps the same principle is at work here.

I've gotten as far as the emails in the first document. If Ivins was bipolar or had a personality disorder why was he on Celexa?

[I]In addition, searches of Dr. Ivins’s home in Frederick, Md., turned up “hundreds” of similar letters that had not yet been sent to media outlets and members of Congress, people who were briefed by the F.B.I. on Wednesday said.[/I]

When did these searches occur? Were they right after the mailings?

If not, are we to believe that Ivins KEPT "similar" letters in his house for years after the mailings? Especially knowing, as a member of that lab and potential suspect, his house could be searched thoroughly?

What is meant by "similar letters"?

More significantly, why would this guy, if he were concerned about his mental health and paranoia and was aware that investigations into the mailings were focused on the lab he worked in and he knew he could be discovered, continue to work at the lab and undergo repeated questionings (even before he was the main target)?

While their forensics and science may win the most scant evidence category - the motive is still, in my mind, the biggest, most implausible stretch of the whole case thus far.