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Wednesday, May 21, 2008 12:00 AM

Michael O'Hanlon's defense of his pro-war record

The Brookings war cheerleader announces: "I believe Ken Pollack and I have been generally proven right by events."

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  • Wednesday, May 21, 2008 01:34 PM

    On the O'Hanlon Hand ...

    That self-test reminded me of something ... and I remembered Malcolm Gladwell's New Yorker article last November about FBI profilers.

    I don't want to spoil it (link at sig) for anyone, but there is a section where he compares the profilers' matrix to the tricks of 'psychics' outlined by the magician Ian Rowland, in “The Full Facts Book of Cold Reading” ... see if MOH's 'predictions' aren't echoed in this brief extract ...

    There is the Barnum Statement, the assertion so general that anyone would agree, and the Fuzzy Fact, the seemingly factual statement couched in a way that “leaves plenty of scope to be developed into something more specific.” (“I can see a connection with Europe, possibly Britain, or it could be the warmer, Mediterranean part?”)

    And that’s only the start: there is the Greener Grass technique, the Diverted Question, the Russian Doll, Sugar Lumps, not to mention Forking and the Good Chance Guess—all of which, when put together in skillful combination, can convince even the most skeptical observer that he or she is in the presence of real insight.

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