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The thing that happened today wasn't the thing that happened in September ... two distinct events.
The first, in September, was that the Israelis dropped some bombs on a facility in Syria. Atypical behavior ensued; Syria did not scream bloody murder, Israel and the US did not talk about the event, much, in public and even Bibi, who had been hollering for Olmert's head, got behind the govt.
The uncharacteristic behavior on the US/Israeli side may have had something to do with the state of talks with N Korea, which had pledged to turn over intelligence about their proliferation programs (that they apparently never did) and which probably wouldn't if there was a public fuss. On the Syrian side it could point to their guilt or alternatively to other things related to the ongoing power struggle between Bashar and his national security apparatus, also his brother, as evidenced more recently by the head of MI's house arrest, the delays in release of the support over Mugniyah's hit, etc.
The more recent event is, I think, a separate story. Some questions (h.t Stratfor - $$$+ site, sorry no link):
1. Why is the US briefing on an Israeli military action?
2. Why, according to the Israeli press on April 23, did the Israelis ask the administration *not* to brief congress?
3. WTF is going on?
Some potential answers, in reverse order:
3. It doesn't seem to have much to do with Israel's right or lack thereof to defend herself by taking any action anytime, the allegedly monolithic and relentless desire of Everyone In the Middle East Everywhere to see Israel wiped off the face of the map, or the Latest Proof of the Perfidy of the Axis of Evil ... though I find the idea of bombing to get Syrians to turn the Russian systems on and acquire a signature particularly interesting, in a tinfoil hat kind of way...
2. The reason given in Israeli media (quoting Stratfor, I haven’t gone to Haaretz or JP to look for myself) for the request was that they did not want the United States to embarrass Syria at this particular moment, i.e. with current diplomatic moves between Syria and Israel. Stratfor:
If this read is true, then it would appear that the United States briefed deliberately against Israeli wishes. Certainly, the Israelis didn't participate in the process. One answer could be that the United States is unhappy about Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's moves on Syria and wants to derail them. The United States wanted Syria out of Lebanon. The Israelis have a more complex view of their presence. In some ways, they see the Syrians as a stabilizing force. And they certainly aren't eager to see Bashar al Assad's government fall, since whatever might replace the al Assad government would probably be worse from the Israeli point of view. That would mean that the Israelis would want to take out the reactor, but not necessarily rub the Syrians' nose in it.
1. Again, from Stratfor:
So there are two plausible answers to Thursday's show. One is to increase pressure on North Korea. The second is to derail any Israeli-Syrian peace process. The problem is that it's hard to see why North Korea is going to be moved by the official declaration of what Washington has been saying from the beginning. The second ... that U.S.-Israeli relations had deteriorated to the point that the United States had to use this as a lever. That's tough to believe.
(Senior HIC Repub )Peter Hoekstra said after the briefing, "This administration has no credibility on North Korea. A lot of us are beginning to become concerned that the administration is moving away from getting a solid policy solution to 'let's make a deal.'"
So that seems to undermine the prep for strike theory. That leaves tension between the United States and Israel as the last standing theory. Not a good theory, but the last standing one.
As with so many events and pseudo-events like this, the devil is in the details ... whereas the debate we 'enjoy' on the news (and get sucked into ourselves) is either about old news, or non sequiturs about Israel's right to self-defense and Syria's latest pledge stunt in the Axis of Evil Hell Week
