Letters to the Editor
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macgupta
The Iraqi Commander of the security forces in Basra and his western adviser are quoted in an English publication, at the end of February, about their feeling of the inevitability of a confrontation in Basra, and that they are preparing for it, and scarcely a month later, it is argued here, Kagan was right at the moment he spoke, how could he have known what was coming?
I'm not sure if this was still directed at me, but if it was, I would like to stress (for, what, the fifth time?) that I don't claim Kagan was right. I only claim that he was probably referring to the Shia/Sunni conflict, not the intra-Shia conflict that Mr. Greenwald cites. When I say Basra had not happened yet, I mean in the sense that the conflict in Basra only became prominent when Maliki offered the 72-hour ultimatum.
And when I say that Kagan was probably talking about the Shia/Sunni conflict being over (and according to his comments on the Charlie Rose show, it seems like that's what he meant), I want to stress that personally I don't think that fight is over, and that it's sortof like the eye of the storm right now for that conflict.
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@Silash
That al-Sadr is suspicious of Iran only supports the (conspiracy?) theory that Iran might be instigating internal factions of the Mahdi Army to continue fighting despite the ceasefire (factions referred to as Special Groups by the US Military; see sig link)
Would have to depend heavily on who in the military is saying what. The Bush people, on down a few ranks into Iraq, have a tendency to link anyone they don't like with Iran. al Sadr's militias are champing at the bit, as the quote from macgupta shows. And he's had problems before at the beginnings of calls for ceasefire because of blood feud feelings right after fighting has killed militia members.
I repeat: contrary to what our officials like to portray, al Sadr is a nationalist, and the militias that are subsumed under the Iraqi government troops are much more likely to be playing Iran's tune.
This happens over and over and over again among both American hawks and among our clandestine services. They can't believe that our enemies don't have ties, and they can't believe any of our friends are tied to our enemies. If you want to see this played out in a different, but relevant context over and over again over a period of 22 years, read Steve Coll's book Ghost Wars about the CIA dealings with various factions in Pakistan and Afghanistan. Whenever anybody did something CIA felt was 'agin us', they assumed on a permanent basis that person was allied with the Soviets or the religious extremists. Half (actually more than half) the time they ended up funding their true enemies and swearing up and down that the most extreme people were the 'moderates'. It would be funny if it hadn't caused so much bloodshed. Even the stuff we're going through right now with al Qaeda. It has it's origins in Pakistani cross-border terrorism, first against the Indians in Kashmir and later expanded to Afghanistan. It's hard to tell whether we financed most of it, or just encouraged our ally Saudi Arabia to (yup, we originally asked Prince Turki to start sending the money).
Now we're blaming everything on Iran. Is any of that blame justified? Probably some. But probably not as much as we say. And it's no more sophisticated to allege Shia militia Iranian complicity than Sunni. The latter most find ridiculous. The former, more should: It pretends that the only thing that matters to anyone in a 1 billion population of Muslims is which sect anybody's from. That just ain't true.
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Excuse me for interrupting, Silash...
but I think one reason you're getting so much resistance is that your argument hangs on others agreeing that Kagan was capable of making such fine distinctions among the various factions.
Given the predictions about a cakewalk & flowers during the runup to the invasion and occupation, there is very little evidence to support his-- or any of the other chickenhawks, for that matter-- having that capability.
Although you and Glenn and many others here may be able to discuss the details at a fine level of detail, you'll be hard-pressed to find any here (except the neocons) who will agree that Kagan et al. know enough to do the same.
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Let's make it easy for Kagan
Here is an article from 2006. It talks about the fact that what was happening at that time in Iraq was a civil war. And it defines what 'civil war' means:
http://www.iht.com/articles/2006/11/26/news/civil.php
From the article:
"The common scholarly definition has two main criteria. The first says that the warring groups must be from the same country and fighting for control of the political center, control over a separatist state or to force a major change in policy. The second says that at least 1,000 people must have been killed, with at least 100 from each side."
This tells us when we know a civil war is underway. But how do we know when it ends, unless there are regular armies in the field, who meet somewhere (such as in a parlor at Appomattox) and sign a surrender document?
Presumably, the civil war is over when violence on the scale described above is over.
Kagan should have gone to Juan Cole's blog, "Informed Comment", and read about Sunday's violence. Below is just one day's violence in Iraq - the day before Kagan's amazing comment - as reported by McClatchy. I doubt this is anything but the tip of the iceberg, but consider the conclusion we must draw even if this account is complete:
[from McClatchy via JuanCole.com)
Baghdad
- Around 6 a.m. four mortars hit the Green Zone, Iraqi police said.
- Around 8 a.m. A roadside bomb targeted Iraqi police patrol near the Shaab stadium, injuring three policemen.
- Around 11 a.m. Iraqi police said 6 rockets targeted the Green Zone, two of them hit the Green Zone and four others hit different areas of Baghdad. One hit a residential building in Kamaliyah killing five civilians and injuring 8, one hit cars parking yard near the Qadiri shrine in central Baghdad injuring 5 civilians. The other two hit different areas in Karrada causing no casualties.
- Around noon gunmen in three civilian cars opened their machineguns fire towards civilians near a cooking gas factory in Zafaraniyah, killing 7 civilians and injuring 16 others.
- Around 3 p.m. a suicide bomber driving a car bomb targeted civilians near a gas station in Shoala neighborhood, killing 5 civilians and injuring 7.
- Around noon a roadside bomb targeted civilians on Uqba bin Nafia square, injuring two civilians.
- Around 5 p.m. two rockets or mortar shells hit the Green Zone, a third missed its target and hit in Sadoun street, injuring one civilian, Iraqi police said.
- Around 8 p.m. a mortar shell hit residential buildings (called the Palestinians' buildings) injuring four civilians.
- At 8:26 p.m. several mortar shells or rockets targeted the Green Zone fell short and hit different areas 3 in Karrada and 1 in Arasat killing 2 and injuring 7 civilians. Another hit a house in Sadoun Street, killing 5 civilians from one family.
- Police found 6 dead bodies throughout Baghdad . . .
Nineveh
- Around 7 a.m. a suicide bomber drove his truck bomb into an Iraqi army headquarter in the industrial area west Mosul, killing 13 soldiers and injuring 30 soldiers and 12 civilians.
- A suicide bomber driving a car bomb targeted an Iraqi army convoy in Al Nour neighborhood in Mosul, killing one officer and injuring 3 soldiers and 7 civilians.
- A roadside bomb targeted an Iraqi army vehicle in Al Hadbaa neighborhood in Mosul, injuring 7 civilians.
- Iraqi police found one dead body in Mosul.
Diyala
- Iraqi police said U.S. troops killed 14 men and injured five people including a woman then used aerial fire to hit four homes in Al Dahalga village (about 28 miles east of Baquba). The U.S. military said they killed 12 men that were a part of a suicide bombing network. . .
- Gunmen killed citizen Ali Hassan in front of his house in central Baquba, Hassan was returning home yesterday after he was displaced.
- Gunmen killed Brigadier General Akram Awad Radhi and his driver as he was heading back to Baquba from Abu Saida area (about 12 miles east of Baquba).
- Gunmen attacked policemen in central Baquba killing a police lieutenant and injuring two other policemen.
- A mortar shell slammed into Al Gatoun area west Baquba, killing two civilians and injuring one.
- A mortar shell slammed into Kanaan town (about 9 miles east of Baquba) injured an infant girl and a woman.
Kirkuk
- Gunmen using two cars attacked an Iraqi army fixed check point to monitor a main road south of Kirkuk (about 16 miles) killing four Iraqi army soldiers and burning their Humvee.
Salahuddin
- A suicide bomber driving a car bomb targeted the house of Al Muatasim town (about 12 miles south of Samarra) mayor yesterday, killing 3 policemen and injuring two civilians. '
The idea that "the" civil war is over is absurd. The most urgent question is this: exactly HOW MANY civil wars are raging in Iraq? Does anyone know?
Shall we ask Fred Kagan to give us a hand figuring that one out?