Letters to the Editor
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Some observations
I frequently avoid this subject because my views on it aren't always appreciated here, which may be with good reason or not, but I have a few observations:
1) The bloodbath. I wrote about this quite some time ago, and believe it to still be correct. The anti-war crowd has very little argument against the people who assert that a sudden withdrawal will create a bloodbath, and usually asserts either that it is inevitable no matter when we leave, or that it is a figment of the neocon imagination. And so we stay, because the anti-war crowd doesn't seem to have a serious plan (you can capitalize or not, depending).
2) Diplomacy and negotiations. I mentioned quite a few months ago that the person the U.S. was going to have to negotiate with was Muktada al-Sadr. I believe that even more strongly now. There was a conversation on NPR two weeks ago with retired general Barry McCaffrey and a retired Colonel MacGreggor (I didn't catch his first name). The colonel said that there are actually two main Shia factions, not one, and that the nationalist faction is represented by al-Sadr (Mahdi army), while the pro-Iranian faction is represented by al-Hakim (Badr brigade) and by extension the Maliki government. He stressed that the Maliki government has pretty much no support in Iraq, partly because of their pro-Iranian leanings.
3) There is a nugget of truth in what Gelb said, that the primary thing is to make a decision to withdraw, not the timetable. I would go further, and then elaborate, and I don't think I would be saying what he is (I agree he's a shill). MacGreggor was asked point blank by a caller about timetables, and said that they are specified by the government, not the military. He said that the military has scenarios for withdrawal at basically any rate of speed from 3 months to 2 years, and they implement the one that fits what they are asked to do. So the crucial point is to decide what we want to do, then discuss what timetable is appropriate, not the other way around.
4) The Iranian government needs to be engaged. I've been delving as a private project into the history and culture in the broad swath of Asia from Iran down to India and Pakistan and over to Mongolia, Tibet, Burma, and the former Turkestan (Xinjiang). There is a very much more fundamental reason for not attacking Iran: While we Westerners and others of the Judaeo-Christian-Muslim heritage have a tendency to think of the Middle East as the cradle of civilization, and talk of Ur-this and Ur-that, it is easily the case that if the swath I mentioned had to pick a 'cradle of civilization' they'd pick Persia and the Asian steppes, wending down to Mohenjo-Daro and Harappa. More than a billion people, maybe two billion, would see an attack on Iran as an attack on the roots of their culture, no less offensive than an attack on the "Holy Land" would be to many in the J-C-M world. Something to think about.
So what to do, since I keep asserting that people are ignoring the bloodbath and need a plan? I mentioned that the priorities need to be said first, so here is my assessment:
1) A complete solution includes: Withdrawal from Iraq, Prosecution of those responsible for the invasion, reparations, negotiating new alliances and diplomatic relations, restructuring our foreign policy to emphasize peaceful diplomacy over military might, rehabilitation of the refugees, and humanitarian aid and reconstruction.
2) The way around the bloodbath is to immediately recognize and begin negotiations with Muktada al-Sadr, and begin by asking him and his people to generate their plan for post-America Iraq, and have neutral but informed parties look at it and figure out how it can be expanded to be inclusive and practical. Then help whoever ends up in the mix to implement it.
3) As Angelina Jolie commented on WaPo a couple of weeks ago, we have a responsibility to deal with the human tragedy we have caused and no plan that has us washing our hands and walking away is moral, just, or even viable. The U.S. must underwrite the costs of the refugee repatriations, the costs of repairing the damages, and the costs of any ongoing humanitarian aid that must be infused into the country to stabilize it and begin its reconstruction.
4) Immediate negotiations must begin with Iran without preconditions on either side, with the goal of regional stabilization and with the hope of improved relations leading to full diplomatic relations as soon as possible. The hostage crisis is over, and has been for some time. We need Iran and they need us in regions from Afghanistan and Baluchistan to Iraq and the Middle East.
5) Our foreign policy needs to be dissected and rebuilt and restructured from top to bottom. We must begin immediately to work out how we are going to trust our security to the other countries in the world, and what they should be able to expect in return. The CINCs that have been set up as second embassies in 120 countries need to be dismantled, and the saved money pumped into real, highly trained, in-country experienced, speak-the-language professional diplomats, whose mission should always be first and foremost that in a dispute between short term practicality and long term American values, the values win.
6) Those responsible for this fiasco, together with all those who have participated in torture and inhumane treatment, from the President down to the interrogators, need to be arrested, and remanded to The Hague for international tribunal. What we expect of others who transgress, we should expect of ourselves.
7) I believe that once the negotiations over the future Iraqi government with al-Sadr and others are started, the most practical timetable to tell the military will become obvious quite quickly. The military should then be told to implement it. I'm sure, from what IntelVet says, there will be those who will be only too happy to do so.
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bucky1
I have been, alas, teaching logic and studying Greek and such, and am only lately repairing my sad lack of current political knowledge. I know more about Plato's Theatetus then I do about what currencies oil is traded in.(i touch my clown nose and make a sad face, reluctantly joining the spectacle).
thanks for the link.