I didn't see this argument in a quick review of the comments, but feel compelled to put it out there since it contradicts GG on one point. Here are my assumptions:

• Pro-war candidates: Romney, Giuliani, Huckabee, Clinton, Thompson, Obama, Edwards
• Anti-war candidates: Kucinich, Paul, Richardson, Dodd, Biden
• The largest two issues voters will consider are the war followed closely by the economy
• Social issues are subordinate to the right this year, as evidenced by Pat Robertson's premature endorsement of Giuliani
• Only a Democrat can shift their position on the war and retain legitimacy

I strongly agree with GG's neoconservative characterization of Bloomberg, from the view on executive power to the foreign agenda, including policy points from support for the Iraq war as a valid front on the war on terror through to aggressive support for Israel.

GG: ...it's hard to see how the candidacy of a divorced, unmarried, stridently pro-gun-control, pro-choice, socially liberal New York City billionaire would accomplish anything other than offering the Republicans their best hope of winning in 2008.... and (my inference) thereby continue the war. I disagree with this assessment. Here's why:

To cover the economy first, the Republicans will be on the defensive by summer 2008 with a significant recession, unprecedented US dollar weakness, continued housing weakness, foreign entities in China and the Middle East buying up domestic corporations like never before, and an almost unfathomable national debt (and simple debt maintenance taking a massive proportion of federal spending). Republicans will have bleak prospects if only a part of this economic outlook is true.

Even assuming that the economy makes it only slightly more difficult for an election to be won by the Republicans, the war remains the primary issue for voters today. I have seen figures that approximately 70 percent of voters are in favor of a short-term end to the war, a huge group. Despite this, we see only a slight chance that a strong anti-war candidate will be the nominee of either major party.

A Bloomberg independent run doesn't advance Republican chances, it actually splits the pro-war vote further, forcing any Democratic nominee to shift to an anti-war stance to capture the massive anti-war block. It's only rational that any Democratic nominee modify their position to gain election based on this popular war position, since Bloomberg winds up splitting the "vote in fear" vote with the Republican party. Based on the size of the anti-war base, this easily clinches a victory for an anti-war Democrat.

Also discussed on the third party landscape is Ron Paul. A strong anti-war independent run (such as Ron Paul could now do) could accomplish the same thing if he chooses to make war opposition his legacy. How? If Paul believes that the war and its multi-faceted costs is the largest issue immediately facing the nation, he may feel morally compelled to run if no other anti-war candidate gets the nomination. By running, Paul keeps the issue in play for a huge voting block, and compels the Democratic candidate to run the the left. If a pro-war candidate like Dodd or Biden did happen to get the nomination, Paul should choose to stay out of the race, allowing a declared anti-war Democrat to win easily.

It's my view that a third party run by Bloomberg or a run by Paul against an initially pro-war Democrat both result in an anti-war Democratic victory in 2008.

Nice cut. Nice paste. Paid by the hour? Or by the word? Jack London, anyone?

Happy New Year!

Wabanatta-thanks for the U2 words-forgot how profound.

Dirigo and Ondo-Thanks for the heads up on Bhutto-strange that msm not covering huh. CNN doing a pretty good job of it-but always one step behind on latest.

Agree with you Ondo on Pakistan being the microcosm of us. While those in power think they've been slick with fooling the public-the blowback seems to always come to bite in the arse. So while the US is getting it's butt-chewed right now with Bhuttos' death-it has yet to catch up in the US. I look forward to that. As RMP said-Pass the popcorn.

Hey BeBop-I'm an April-Fool baby-so I like to think "fool" is not a derogatory word! Maybe in my alternate universe, I can fool the fools that fool-since I was born under the "Fool" sign.

And by God-(always by God)... I think I can. I know I can.

Good New Year to ya.

It is at the Austin Convention Center and the Austin Hilton is the primary hotel. The organizers are asking for netroots help on making suggestions for speakers and other conference activities. Just go to netrootsnation.org

The words one should heed before actually going for the 'degree' offered on that matchbook. Methinks bostonMA has about as much firepower behind him / her as GWB's degrees. Zero. Actually, think here: blackhole -- univeristy career / military service.

I suppose that she'd given up thinking of giving the report to the State Department. Did you notice the McClatchy report didn't even quibble about cause of death, they just said she'd been shot, but that the government said...

A New Year's respite from providing equal time when one side is obviously wrong.

Happy New Year to everybody here. To another year of doggin them FISA types until they listen, another year of hoping they press charges against someone.

May there be peace.

I haven't been to Austin since mumble mumble. If I get back there in '08, I must go see the good folks at Sweetish Hill, even though Tom left and went out to Cal Poly, ages ago.

I'm nibbling some of tomorrow's Hoppin' John a day early, getting a head start on some good luck. Is each bean only worth a dollar? There should be an inflation adjustment.

Eat your own good luck foods. In Switzerland it's marzipan pigs. In Georgia it's turnip greens. Invent your own traditions. Mix and match. Happy New Year.

I raise a glass of cider.

Thanks, Beth. Happy New Year to you. Keep searching.

Happy New Year to all.

You forgot the hog jowls..

In the turnip greens, I mean.

Happy New Year everyone.. And if you are a designated driver, try to keep it shiny side up and rubber side down.