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The notion that war results are in doubt until close to the end is complete nonsense. By this point in the American Civil War, it was over. By this point in WWII, the we had been occupying Germany for almost a year and Japan for more than half a year.
The Civil War outcome was not militarily in doubt after July 4, 1863, when the Union had captured Vicksburg, clearing the MIssissippi and cutting the Confederacy in twain. The Father of Waters, said Lincoln, flows unvexed to the sea. At the same time, Lee was forced to retreat from Gettysburg, with ruinious losses. By the end of 1863, all but a sliver of Tennessee had been restored to Union control and Lee was increasingly pinned against Richmond by Grant. The naval blockade was strangling the Confederate economy.
By September 1943, there was no doubt about the outcome of the Second World War. The Russians had crushed the Germans in the biggest tank battle in history at Kursk. The Americans and British had captured as many troops as the Nazis had lost at Stalingrad in Tunisia, crossed into Sicily, taken it and landed on the mainland, defeated a fierce German counter-attack at Salerno and were moving north for Naples. Mussolini had been thrown out. The U-Boats have been defeated and men and munitions were flowing unimpeded into Britain for the Normandy landings. In the Pacific, MacArthur was advancing westward through New Guinea and the Navy had neutralized Rabaul and was moving to seize the Gilberts and Marshalls (done by the end of 1943).
Nor were the American forces in 1943 in any sense "broken." The Navy was adding an aircraft carrier a week and a destroyer or destroyer escort a day. 96,000 aircraft would be built in 1943. A comparable number would be built in 1944. Newly formed divisions by the dozen were completing training and shipping out for the battle fronts.
Even the lines in the stalemated war in Korea were essentially fixed by summer of 1951, although there would not be a truce for another two years.
All of these wars went on for much longer, almost two years in the case of WWII in the Pacific, but their outcomes were not in doubt. There is simply no comparison to Iraq.
