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Namely that the surge proponents do not recognize the difference between strategy and tactics. Kagan says: "One could be excused for thinking that in the fall of 2006, when sectarian violence seemed to be cycling out of control against the backdrop of a wrong-headed U.S. strategy. But President Bush has adopted a new strategy".
The surge is a tactic, not a strategy, that is being pursued by this administration in the complete absence of a broader middle east strategy and which is therefore destined to fail whether we have 170,000 troops in Iraq or 0.