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"it doesn't matter how many STATES have nuclear weapons, they can never use them against Israel
the only real risk that nuclear weapons pose is that someone who is not, or who believes that they are not, subject to retaliation will acquire one."
Perhaps I didn't state it clearly enough, but that is exactly my point: Libya, Syria, Iran and Pakistan are all states that had no nuclear programs in the recent past. All have made significant progress with Pakistan actually building a small arsenal.
I agree no state would nuke Israel for fear of reprisal. But it is only a matter of time before a non-state entity acquires one, possibly from an aforementioned state. I would add that military pounding of Gaza, regardless of justification, hastens this process by agitating radical elements.
In my mind, Israel's best and only longterm defense is to integrate.