I've seen this purportedly dispassionate I'm-just-doing-the-numbers-don't-blame-me crud before. Perhaps in your case it is true. Whatever. What it boils down to is this: The only hope Republicans have is that Americans are more racist than the polls indicate.

That must make you feel really proud.

Were these four examples ALL the cases in which a black candidate ran against a white candidate? If so, then your thesis should be looked at seriously. If not and you chose them to prove your point, then there's no reason to take your position seriously because you didn't choose a representative sample to test your hypothesis.

Without conclusions foregone

The chioce of McCian

Would be just wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong.

I think I will stop reading Salon until after Nov. 4th.

...is concerned

Despite the statistical evidence to the contrary... the Bradley effect lives, apparently. If nothing else, it's a nice excuse to explain a completely contradictory result to exit polling when the Diebold machines have a happy fun "malfunction" that causes McCain to suddenly surge in voting and win the election, huh?

Seek ye greener cow pastures.

Build a better Cow Pie that flies

People smell 'K Roving Manual

Take off the "concerned" disguise

Why is a liberal website like Salon running a piece like this one week out from the election? Is there a point in stoking Democratic fears of an Obama collapse? While it is certainly important not to be overconfident and continue to fight until the finish, it is necessary to run articles chronicling Republican fantasies about hidden racism and the chances of pulling off an historic upset? Why stop here? Dick Morris had a similar article recently as did Bill Kristol and Charles Krauthammer. Why not run those as well? Salon should not be in the business of helping the other side. Have no doubt that Drudge will link to this article and that others in the Republican world will quote with glee the fact that Democrats are crapping their pants at the thought of losing this election. I know that if the Republicans were ahead at all, let alone by a wide margin, there would only be smugness and crowing about how Democrats can't win Presidential elections and how Republicans outsmarted Democrats again. I am simply amazed at how Democrats cannot believe in themselves. To invoke a sports analogy, dont' play to not to lose. Play to win. Democrats need to project an air of confidence and act like winners. In the immortal words of Mike Ditka: Show me a good loser and I'll show you a loser.

I'm not American so I don't know exactly how things work there... but I've been reading a lot about "The Bradley Effect" and how much it may or may not erode Obama's current lead.

However, if I understand correctly, pollsters don't call cellphone numbers in the US. Is this true? If so, there is a pool of young, cellphone-only (no land-line) voters of undetermined size that are not being polled at all. And again, if I understand correctly, young voters are overwhelmingly voting Obama. Are there enough to cancel out any Bradley Effect?

It would seem the "known unknowns" in this particular election are bigger than ever before... polling in this election is less reliable than ever (not that it ever was particularly reliable)...

How about white on whites and black on black candidates? Do the polls measurably differ from the election day for these groups? Does the effect fall outside the bell curve of expectations? How would these control groups compare to two candidates of different color?

Could you finish the damn article properly now?

Broke for Clinton in significant numbers. Honestly I'd prefer to see more polls showing Obama with a lead larger than the number of 'undecideds'. I do not want peope who can't make up their minds this late in the process having any influence on the election.

Such people are McCain's last hope. They tend to vote emotion and fear. McCain's going to start running the Wright commercials in the last couple of days (my guess is Thurs or Friday) in order to try and scare these people into voting for him. It shouldn't work.

I am cautiously optimistic, but it is too soon to become complacent. I want Obama to win and win big.

Turnout is key. Obama needs to bring all those newly registared Dems to the polls and we need to make sure Republicans do not block them from voting.

There are only three logical constituencies for the McCain/ Palin ticket: the multi-millionaires, the racists, and the clueless. The idea that the choice of this coalition of odd fellows could end up taking the country down their dark and divisive path is motivation enough for me to keep working as hard as I can in the days remaining before Election Day. Anyone who is sick and tired of the politics of Us vs Them, fed up with the demonization of anyone not 100% lily white European-American, insulted and disgusted with being accused of not being a "real American," and fed up the rich getting richer and the rest of us getting the shaft, this is no time to rest! We must get out the vote, or the scenario in Greener's premise could go from being a dreaded nightmare to a real disaster. We simply must get out the vote and prove that the politics of inclusiveness and empowerment can triumph over the politics of Us vs Them.

I thought I was reading New Republic.

No wait....

You forgot to include the margin of error for the polls you cited. As the difference between the election results and the poll numbers was relatively small in all four cases, I would be surprised if those differences did not fall within the margin of error. Which means the polls were essentially reliable.

That there was any difference at all could be attributed to the Bradley affect, I suppose, but determining that would involve comparing all the other races that year and sorting out the rest of the differentials to find out if they were significantly greater for black candidates.

Get back to us when you've assembled a cogent analysis. And pick up some champagne at the store for us while you're out.