Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.

See 538 for more detailed analysis.

Please do an article with a variation of this theme every day. I deleted my polling bookmarks. Sadly, I know them all & obsessively type them in instead. (making myself type = self punishment for being weak & paranoid.)

Yes, I'm asking you to hold my hand every day.

Thanks!

but since the usa chose dubya twice i'm inclined to think their choice is not quite a guarantee of quality. they'll vote for anyone.

america is going to get it right this time, but the yokels are still voting republican and will continue to provide a base next time the dems get visibly rotten and the weathervane vote swings around. then the rich will put a smoother nazi in the whitehouse and the nation will ratchet another step down toward paraguay and zimbabwe.

after the thrill of participation wears off, all you've done is elect another politician. obama will put a few band-aids on the worst sores, but america needs a new constitution. without democracy, you're just waiting for the next gang of fascists to come along and trash the nation.

Though any individual poll may be off for a number of reasons the general consensus of the polls in this race is pretty convincing. My main concerns at this point are the possibility of an unexpected last minute event that could shift things and the extent of the voter suppression efforts or other dirty tricks that might come into play. I really get the feeling that the Obama campaign is not taking anything for granted as I am seeing indications from various sources of how much effort is being put into the last minute push to get out the vote. Nov. 4 can't come too soon.

I was listening to the Rush Limbaugh radio show yesterday and he said that the McCain-Obama race was a dead heat. He said that McCain was gaining rapidly and would win the race. He said he based his analysis on an AP poll that had the race even.

Rush did mention that there was one other poll, but the New York Times, he said, is biased. He said the Times' liberal journalists somehow make all polls its surveyer conducts pro-Obama. He didn't explain how, but Rush is a genius so I believe him.

Based on what Rush said, there were no other polls that came out yesterday. I just read an article that mentions a Fox poll having Obama up by eight. I don't believe there is such a poll or else Rush would have mentioned it because he is an objective and fair analyst. I see that Ipsos, the Wall Street Journal, and Pew Research Center also have Obama way up. I don't believe these polls exist or else Rush would have mentioned this.

I checked Real Clear Politics and it says there are several other polls that came out yesterday. I believe this is part of the liberal media conspiracy, and these polls really didn't come out. If they did, Rush would have told me so.

I count about 10 polls that came out, according to the liberal media. But I believe that only two came out because Rush told me so and I believe that John McCain is going to win because Rush told me so.

This is my story and I'm sticking to it.

Either that or Rush Limbaugh is a pathological liar and a brainless idiot who has done more to harm the civic discourse of this nation than anyone alive since Father Coughlin.

Shalom,

ZWrite

I don't want to be too optimistic but a landslide would be divine!

Ah yes, the ol' October Surprise. Well yes, there may be one, but I guarantee you (signing this one in blood) it will either leave Obama unfazed or will actually crush the last bit of life out of McCain-Palin.

Something odd happened today. Just got off the phone. The "surprise" may be so surprising, if it gets out in time, that my Grand Old Party may never recover; certainly not the principles both outgoing and hoping (against hope) to come in.

Trust me, the IBD-TIPP poll can be tossed, if you like, along with any other one of your choice. This is gonna be a big plurality for Obama, if not a landslide.

All that aside, how "scientific" can most of these polls be anyway, when they use such screwed up, flawed and wishful thinking to skew their results a desired way? The only reason, as Maslin has explained quite clearly, we can know the way the wind is blowing is because it hasn't changed, and it's too late to stop now.

Polls cannot, ergo, do not account for actual (now, many virtual) ballots counted in favor of each candidate. Rather than begin gloating, how about some enthusiasm for the UNITY this election has set into place. Unity cannot tolerate the sort of elitism (as in na-nee-na-nee-boo-boo, my guy's gonna cream you) that unnecessary gloating engenders. You gloat, the other guy knows he's being disrespected. Do you really want to incite a bunch of votes that are currently apathetic?

That was yesterday's headline citing another poll, by the Associated Press, that put the two of them even, Obama at 44% and McCain at 43%. Interestingly, New Jersey's largest newspaper, The Star-Ledger, chose to run with this headline on its national hard news page. It also ran an accompanying story bylined by Liz Sidoti, an unapologetic Republican supporter.

The question I put in an e-mail to the Star-Ledger's two senior editors was WHY did the paper choose to run only this story when just about every other major media outlet and poll in the country is reporting a lead for Obama?

One of them did get back to me but completely skirted the question. I would be curious to know the source of this editorial decision to manipulate the news in this way. But as Robert Greenwald so deftly showed in his Fox News documentary, these types of manipulations are completely hidden from public view.