Letters to the Editor
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We don't have the evidence
that Obama can't beat McCain. We have all the evidence we need that Shawn and Kate will never again add anything of note to this discussion. My God, their stupidity is sucking the life out of my children even as I write this.
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It is clear Obama won't win
In this analysis, which gives Obama the benefit of a very large doubt in SEVERAL states, Obama barely (possibly) squeaks by.
IF Obama is the nominee, Ohio and Pennsylvania voters are not going to prefer him. He opposed a re-vote in Michigan. He keeps making gaffes--this week, saying there are 57 states, saying he wants to meet without preconditions with terrorists (which is also on his website), calling a professional reporter by the diminishing name "sweetie" as if she were a child, and on and on and on. If he becomes the nominee in August (and no one can become the nominee until the vote takes place, no matter how they arrogantly proclaim themselves the nominee before then), he has 6 months to make more gaffes, and for everyone to question his judgment and how it will translate into cabinet appointees: http://barackobamaassociates.info
If he's the nominee, the man is going to lose in the fall.
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calm down
Doomed I say, doomed. If we:
1) Ignore that all the fundamentals are on the Democrats' side in this election,
2) Pretend that polling data shows Obama in a deep hole to McCain,
3) Mutter darkly about racism and sexism, and
3) Spot McCain each of PA, OH, FL, and, why not, MI,
Then Obama is doomed!
This comments section is a farce.
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and i can't count
but the point stands
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McCain is weak; Obama will crush him.
One thing we need to factor into any of the math which goes beyond the state trends listed here is that the R's have put up a phenomenally weak candidate.
He's worse than Bob Dole.
By November, most of the country will see him as senile, out of touch, and tied to the losing horse of GWB and his horrible economy and hugely unpopular war. John McCain will be the Rebublican's Dukakis.
This election is going to be more like 1976 - when the entire country looked upon the Republicans as lepers who needed to be expunged.
But look at how much changed between 1976 and 1980 - the foreign policy was a mess (hostage crisis) and the economy was a disaster with rising gas prices... does that remind anyone of... NOW?! And the party in power was severely punished for it.
1980 changed the electoral map. Reagan hammered the D's on making America look weak on the world stage and on having a badly performing economy. Obama is going to pull the same kind of change. Anywhere that's usually close will be blue. Places that were solidly red will be in play. Places that are reliably blue will be our backbone. And Obama will win in a landslide, with between 55 and 60% of the popular vote.
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Ohio and Pennsylvania voters are not going to prefer Obama?
Based upon what?
Rasmussen has Obama 47/39 in PA and 40/47 in OH while Hillary is
47/38 in PA and 42/47 in OH. The general election campaign hasn't even started yet, and McCain has already said some amazing stuff. It's not 2000 or 2004 anymore.
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@sagcat
You said it all in less than one sentence: "...the R's have put up a phenomenally weak candidate." It couldn't be more true. All the oracles and Nostradamii here are basing their doomsday scenarios on either a) flawed statistical thinking and/or b) wishful thinking. McCain is of no particular interest to Republican voters (I know -- I am a lifelong Republican even though I haven't voted for a Republican Presidential nominee since Nixon). McCain is a profoundly weak candidate at a very bad time for Republicans. The most intransigent Republicans are more interested in Obama than some Democrats -- at least if one is to go by what one reads in these threads here.
Statistically one can make a case for a close win by Obama, but taking everything into consideration, there is an equal potential for an Obama juggernaut come November.
Yes, I hear you cynics wheezing out there. Nice to know you're still breathing what with all the bile you substitute for blood -- and guts.
Thanks, sagcat. A few sane folks remain.
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@xufapemu turnout for AA, evangelicals, and the 'youth vote'
I agree that these demographics could easily tip the election one way or another, especially in the contested states. On the other hand, I think there is a growing buzz that this election is a crossroads that could drive above average turnout among other segments of the voter population. I would agree that the democrats have some structural advantages with Iraq, the economy and internal discord within the republican party.
The republicans are 0-3 in special elections now, which is not a good omen for them. But a lot of crazy stuff can happen between now and november. McCain seems to be alienating his base at the moment, but if Obama falters, McCain may win enough independents and centrists to pull it off. His global warming speech, and thoughts on immigration and how good the economy is, is not going over well on my favorite (evil) talkradio station.
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Bob Barr for Pres!
Although I am an Obama donor, I have to admit Hillary has an advantage with OH and PA, and putting FL in play. Obama's road to 270 is definitely tougher, but not impossible. As much as it pains me to say it, Rev. Wright has severely damaged his crossover appeal. Hopefully this 'issue' came out early enough and in the coming 6 months, cooler heads will prevail and see that he's not a 'kill whitey muslim terrorist who bowls a 37 while confiscating your .30-06'
That, and Obama needs the youths to actually show up for once. If they don't, I say we re-institute the draft just out of spite.
Also hope that Bob Barr can gather enough of the Fundies to shave off 2 or 3% off McCain.
No way McCain takes CO. The Focus on the Family folks here hate McCain and won't show. McCain only got 19% (Romney took 60%). Also have a hard time seeing McCain take MN (Romney won there too). Obama is Minnesota-nice.
To keep it all in perspective, no matter what happens, W will not be president.