Letters to the Editor
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John Adams had nothing to do with it
He wasn't even at the Constitutional Convention. The name you probably want there is Gouverneur Morris. Madison did play a role, but he wasn't as important to the shaping of the presidency as some others Framers, like James Wilson and Alexander Hamilton.
Look, I know it's hard to imagine, but the fact that someone's been featured in a recent HBO series doesn't mean he was responsible for everything that happened back then.
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@ Roman Berry
You've run the math time and time again?
OMG you've got to be kidding me?
You do realize that at this point in the process in 1980, Walter Mondale was 17 points ahead of Reagan don't you?
Al Gore was a lock to beat Bush in 2000. John McCain is running behind or statistaically tied in these battleground states with Obama, and LOSING points in the past weeks.
Oh, but no worries, Roman Berry has run the math and he says there's no freakin' way.
You hear that Republicans? You can sleep easy. No need to even campaign. Roman Berry has run the math time and time again and he says its a lock.
You people are freaking hillarious!!
I hope to hell all Republicans are as 'smart' at math as you.
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Meant '84 with Mondale and Reagan
but you get the idea
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He'll win 10
Just like Dukakis, he'll win 10. After they highlight his complete and total inexperience, his nefarious ties to corrupt influence peddlers ("Hey, Tony! I'm buying a house - let me give you a tour, and tell me what you think of it!"), and a voting record in the Illinois Senate that's straight out of big city mayor Daley's machine playbook he'll be lucky with ten states.
He's a candidate whose full name it is unfair to say, an African American running in a country where race is such a large unresolved issue that mentioning race is taboo, and a nominee who only got there if you didn't count some votes and put adherance to rules over the will of large groups of voters (like Bush in 2000!). The Democratic Party is in shambles, and their nominee is a joke. Shame on every single Democrat that thought electing this goof was a good idea.....
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@ Jeff Smith
Yeah, Adams is really big now.
I went to a trivia night for my kid's hockey team and there was a question "who is known as the father of the Constitution".
I thought, 'this could be a few different founders' but I put down Madison; thought he was the more obvious.
Went they gave out the answers they said it was Adams.
People thought I was just a sore loser because I complained about the answer, but I was just upset that people are so ignorant of American history.
What's was even tougher to take was that the guy who researched the questions and answers had American flags sticking out of every window of his Ford Explorer.
God Bless America
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self important pundits will rule the world
Amazing that this myth of Hilary being able to win the nomination has the hold of marginal media pandering to dorks. We get more and more hashed theories and hopes to feed the frenzy of the mediapopulists who think they are serving the project of democracy.
How about instead of these pointless articles we move on? All the self-righteous morons talking about the middle class might want to think about the poor and the working class. Despite Salon's claim to talk about the issues, the main difference of how the "middle class" is define is obviously ignored. Oh wait, it is easier to pander to the fears and desires of each side in this futile project than consider the implications of defining the middle class as 75K rather than 200K when in fact the median income is 42K....
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Factoidus
Should be factdevoidus.
Another idiot with a race fixation.
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Sites tracking electoral votes:
There's a few other sites tracking poll data at the state level
270toWin.com
fivethirtyeight.comand of course Rasmussen: http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update
A lot will happen between now and November, and polls are approximations in any event. But it's an interesting way to view the contest. 538 in particular has some analysis of the appalachian voting bloc.
Some alternative 'math' to chew on.
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Correct me if I'm wrong...
Isn't it always the candidate with the most money that wins elections?
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@ xufapemu
Your trivia answer (Madison) was right. I mean, far be it from me to argue with a guy who has flags on his Ford Explorer -- always better than actual knowledge or research, as we know -- but it's weird: That guy must have found the phrase "Father of the Constitution" in some source, yet not noticed who the source was referring to. Anyway, you wuz robbed.
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Uncle Fester
The guy who runs fivethirtyeight.com has been especially accurate. In fact, he's been consistently right on the money.
Want to really 'run the math time and time again'?
Look at his math here http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/black-youth-and-latino-turnout-and.html
Warning to Republicans; you may not want to read this link.
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John Adams or James Madison 'Father of the Constitution'
I always thought that James Madison (IMHO underrated) was the father of the constitution, and that Adams was out of the country (UK I believe) at the time of the convention. The non-definitive wiki agrees.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philadelphia_Convention
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SIGH...
How is Obama going to win if he's shaky not only in the South, but in the Southwest and parts of the Midwest? In this economy, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan, New Mexico, and Nevada should be in the bag, not battleground states. SIGH...
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xufapemu, when you post...
Xufapemu, when you post things like "Al Gore was a lock to beat Bush in 2000", you show that you are not well aware of or in command of the facts. Bush was ahead of Gore in the polling right up until the close of the election. That Al Gore came from behind to win (and he did win even if he was not allowed to assume his rightful place as president) was a miracle.
America is not blind to race. I wish it were otherwise but it isn't. Barack Obama can not win the presidency in this country at this time. He will not win in Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania. In optimistic looks at the electoral college, the best I can reasonably come up with for Obama is 246 electoral votes. At worst, I see Obama in the 190's. Either way, if Barack Obama is the nominee, John McCain is the next president.
Go play with the vote calculator at NARA (see http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/calculator.html ) yourself. But don't lie to yourself about which states Obama might reasonably carry when you do.
If I am wrong, I will make sure that my apologies are posted after election day. I don't believe that I am wrong or that any such apology will be needed.
Now, go get your facts straight on the Bush and Gore polls from 2000.