Letters to the Editor
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How will Obama get to the majic 270
This was a really interesting article from a very practical perspective.
The short answer to the question is John McCain, who is not making overtures to liberal bloggers.
Unless the Republican Party and other interested entities are willing and able to expose the real Obama to the american public, Obama will surely hit the 270 electoral votes and then some. 32% McCain clinched the nomination with media support and independent voters in the primaries, but the misnamed "straight talk express" is no match for the slick and ruthless "Obama Train to Washington".
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Stop with the wishful thinking math
For turn out, let's be generous and give Obama a 3% edge (that way too much, but it's for argument purposes) he still needs to pick up people who actually voted for Bush in 2004. That's when the war was at its most unpopular, and Bush's approval ratings were very low.
This is not even remotely true.
Bush's approval rating in October 2004 was 48%.
Bush's approval rating this week is 28%.
The public was split pretty evenly in 2004 on whether the Iraq war was a mistake. Now 63% believe it was a mistake.
Seriously, if you want Obama to win, you have to stop seeing everything as pro-Obama. Far too many of his supporters do this. Republicans vote for Obama in the Primary, it's his appeal across party lines, Republicans vote for Clinton, it's a sign they think she's the weakest candidate.
Just as in the 2006 Lieberman-Lamont Senate race, where these same posters were saying Lamont would blow Lieberman away, we saw how this very predictable race turned out.
Here we have another Obama supporters trying to twist information. In May 2004 Bush's approval ratings according to Zogby, CNN and Pew were all in the lower 40s.
Then you take Bush's current lowest poll taken, as opposed to his highest in the period as a comparision. Yes, Bush's number are horrible, at around 34% average. That means somehow 1 in 3 people still think Bush is doing a good job. How, I have no idea, but do you really think Obama is going to win over these people?
As to the popularity of the War, when was the last time Cindy Sheenan made national news? That's what I thought.
Anti-war sentiment ran much deeper in 2004 than today, though more people are willing to admit they oppose the war today, it's less of a voting issue.
Plus, the last year has been kind to McCain in Iraq. The entire balancing issue between Sadr and Maiki could blow up at anytime, but currently the central government appears to have the upper hand, despite losing most actual battles.
Most Obama supporters keep making the mistake that they believe others think as they do. They don't. This is going to be a very difficult campaign.
When I see people posting Obama will win 350 or 333 Electoral Votes, it makes me cringe, because it shows a detachment for the reality of the actual election.
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Outstanding post, indigo
Samizdat Syndrome has turned out to be one of the more incredible aspects of this campaign season: only in 'underground' messages such as yours do home truths tend to appear. You and others like you are doing the media's (and the DNC's) job, and though your efforts are highly admirable, it's pretty frightening to see reality distorted and suppressed by the media over and over again in service of a lesser candidate, a man who has been elevated, over and over again, to a plateau far beyond his standing. In short, thanks for a grounded message.
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Under Estimating the Opposition
In any contest the first step to failure is underestimating the opposition. Only those afflicted with extreme hubris or naiveté should be underestimating the Republicans or fickle circumstance in determining the outcome of this election. The only sensible strategy is to go into this thing with the mentallity that it is going to be hard faught battle. The best team does not always win and no one has a cristal ball and can tell what is going to happen in world events that could dramatically change the equation. For instance if there was another terror attack do you really think Obama would prevail again McCain? Fear worked last time around for Bush and it would work again for McCain in a tight race. If the population is anxious about national security the military man, no matter how old or out of touch will trump the inexperience, lefty liberal with the golden tong. I'm not slapping Obama but rather stating the obvious. Change is only a viable message if the population is not insecure.
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Xanthro, precisely....
Most Americans don't spend their time chat and debate on the internet like us. Most Americans are perhaps much simpler in their reasoning. And these people will decide our leader. O is a god among his supporters, mostly AA and young people and liberals in urban areas. We are under the illusion when we see his rally that this is representative of most Americans. No, it's not. The rural Americans are the silent majority and it's hard to know how exactly they think and will behave in the election but we at least know they are HARDLY liberal and the past 2 elections are proof enough of this fact that it'll be suicidal to take them for granted, to even remotely entertain the thought that they are just like us.
Who is more appealing to this demographics? Hillary or O?
You know the answer.
Hence, the race isn't over.
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I actually believe
McCain will lose Arizona, people there hate him so much after 32 years of BS that they are going to be out to vote against him if not for the Democrat...
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indigo218
re: the silent majority.
You mean the silent majority that think Clinton is an evil lesbian who killed Vince Foster and has made millions in shady business transactions like Whitewater and Cattle and wants to cram Communist Healthcare down our throats? Is that the silent majority you're talking about?
just checking.
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@KateTex and Roman Berry --- Shoehorned in?
KateTex:
Obama is also shaky in the Northeast. Not to mention with women (and men) all over the country who are deeply angry at the rampant sexism of the Obama campaign and the media, and the rotten treatment Hillary and Bill Clinton have received from their own party. I love the fantasy-based belief that "we'll all fall in line in time for November" if Obama is somehow shoehorned in. Hah! If that's what does transpire, Cindy McCain can go ahead and order up the new china.
I would like for you to explain something to me. Maybe I am dense, but I don't understand how Sen. Obama would be, as you put it, "shoehorned in." Sen. Obama is leading the popular vote in the primary -even if you count Michigan where he was not on the ballot. He leads in pledged delegates and super delegates. By every measure, he has beaten Sen. Clinton.
I keep hearing how only black people and communists voted for Sen. Obama. Do those groups make up the majority of the party? White people are not a minority in the Democratic party or anywhere else in the US.
So please explain how, mathematically, Sen. Obama is not the candidate of the majority. I need to have that worked out for me. All these people upset with Obama's supposed sexism are going to vote for McCain? Please explain I want to understand.
I'd also like to see Roman Berry tell me how his math shows that Sen.Clinton draws all these voters that Obama does not. Particularly in swing states and Republican states where she'll be running against Sen. McCain.
PS: Please stop calling Obama supporters sexist. Maybe some are, but no more so than Clinton supporters are racists.