Letters to the Editor
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Lost NJ and Mass and Calif by double digits well BEFORE the Repubs will vote
Told you on supertues day that he couldn't win after losing NJ and CA in the margins he did with hispanics.
Michigan, isn't that the swing state that the wacko left Nobama nuts have been saying didn't deserved to have their votes count.
Anyone who believes this clown isn't already toast might as well put a tooth under his pillow tonight.
Face it. The wacked out left snatched defeat from the jaws of victory again..
The only good thing for those of us who had this election stolen from us is to watch obama get destroyed as he deserves to with his wacks.
I plan to have a LOT of popcorn on hand, but I figure it'll be over by July even to the most starry-eyed fool. (it's long been over for him to those of us who live in the real world).
Nobama Noway.
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Good Math, How About Brand?
I think McCain is a paper tiger. He is a poor debater, low-watt bulb and saddled with the worst brand name in modern history. I see nothing he is doing changing that perception even in casual observers.
While your map is a proper starting point, the only one that will beat the democratic nominee is the democratic nominee.
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Hello Shawn
Funny thing, I knew it was you after reading two lines and not even seeing the name at the bottom. Time to learn a few new tunes, amigo?
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A well-reasoned and thoughtful article!
Thanks Paul! And thanks, Joan. You might finagle that subscription re-up out of me after all!
It is time to start thinking about the math and its nice to see that Obama has many paths to choose from.
Time to get to work!
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The New Possibilities
...are out there. It's clear from the very reasoned, sane, calm but mostly statistical article that they are there. What happened in 2000 and 2004 in the questionable states may not even come close to happening this time. It is -- and I really hate to use yet another sports metaphor, but it's true -- it is very much like the emergence of Muhammad Ali; no believed it because no one had seen it before. Then, when they saw it, at first they couldn't believe what they were seeing. The Conventional Wisdom was turned on its head.
McCain is the utterly known, shopworn, old, trite, familiar. You know, the one we already know doesn't work. That's the only good thing about history at this point in history: we have a chance to go for something that might work vs. what we know beyond the shadow of a doubt has been an unmitigated catastrophe.
And so the 48 year old question arises once again: Why not?
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May not need electoral
More Democrats will vote this year because Of Obama being the nominee. He may win the popular vote in overwhelming numbers. He won most of the State mentioned. Hillary did NOT win CA, PA or OH by double digits. When the final votes were counted they were all under 10 pts.
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ShawnWM
You say the election was stolen from you?
How did Obama steal the election from McCain?
His election against you Republicans isn't until November.
Come on! I don't think anyone is buying that you are a dissatisfied Democrat.
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This is just a starting point
The thing to remember, this math is just a starting point. This is where it stands without a campaign, or rather assuming an ordinary campaign, without the reality of Obama doing his thing and McCain doing his. If Obama is doing this well even before he has a chance to work his mojo, well you have to feel pretty good.
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Good analysis of Michigan
You got the difference between Western Mich. and Eastern, and between Northern and Southern. And it is not just what people who think they know everything already think.
Are you from Michigan? How did you know this stuff? If you are as perceptive about the rest of the states, you must be pretty good.
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@ Fender
Does race REALLY matter this much to you?
You seem to be obsessed with race, gender etc.
Is everything boiled down to identity with you?
Frankly, I have to remind myself that Obama is black. Obama doesn't constantly refer to his race, the media has begun to play it down and as folks get more comfortable with him, race becomes less of an issue.
As he's said many times, he's not African-American or half-white American; he's just an American. An American who doesn't hate Israel.
If you have to lie to express your point, your point is bullshit.
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How will Obama get to 270? He won't.
I've run the math time and time again. I see no way that Obama wins in Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania and without at least two of those three in his column on election day, there is no path to 270 electoral votes and therefore no path to the presidency.
Obama also stands zero chance in Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Arizona.
Mr. Maslin in right when he points out that Minnesota is not the reliably Democratic state that it once was. Many Dems on the national level are behind the times in there perception on this one. Many Dems in Minnesota are just wet from living in De Nile. If Minnesota votes for the "Straight Talk Express", it's all over.
Michigan? I don't know what to make of Michigan, especially with the "you don't count and I won't make any exceptions" stance of the Obama campaign on the primary. But Michigan is also not the reliable Dem state that it once was. A McCain win here would not surprise me.
As inspiring as Obama may be to those who support him, the fact is that the perception among his supporters that he is inspiring to everyone (or even the overwhelming choice of Democrats in the primaries) is simply not supportable with anything like facts.
If someone can show me an Obama path -- a reasonably realistic path -- to victory in the electoral college without Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida, I'd like to see it.
I've tried to make clear to many that my opposition to Barack Obama (forgetting the minor quibbles over healthcare mandates or the Social Security "crisis") simply boils down to this: I do not believe that Barack Obama stands a snow ball's chance in hell of winning a general election versus John McCain. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, McCain is the next president. Simple as that.