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Friday, May 16, 2008 12:00 AM

How will Barack Obama get to 270?

This November, a Democratic victory will probably hinge on the Electoral College votes of a handful of swing states. Howard Dean's pollster examines 17 fall battlegrounds, one by one.

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  • Thursday, May 15, 2008 07:54 PM

    xufapemu, when you post...

    Xufapemu, when you post things like "Al Gore was a lock to beat Bush in 2000", you show that you are not well aware of or in command of the facts. Bush was ahead of Gore in the polling right up until the close of the election. That Al Gore came from behind to win (and he did win even if he was not allowed to assume his rightful place as president) was a miracle.

    America is not blind to race. I wish it were otherwise but it isn't. Barack Obama can not win the presidency in this country at this time. He will not win in Ohio, Florida or Pennsylvania. In optimistic looks at the electoral college, the best I can reasonably come up with for Obama is 246 electoral votes. At worst, I see Obama in the 190's. Either way, if Barack Obama is the nominee, John McCain is the next president.

    Go play with the vote calculator at NARA (see http://www.archives.gov/federal-register/electoral-college/calculator.html ) yourself. But don't lie to yourself about which states Obama might reasonably carry when you do.

    If I am wrong, I will make sure that my apologies are posted after election day. I don't believe that I am wrong or that any such apology will be needed.

    Now, go get your facts straight on the Bush and Gore polls from 2000.

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