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How will Barack Obama get to 270?
This November, a Democratic victory will probably hinge on the Electoral College votes of a handful of swing states. Howard Dean's pollster examines 17 fall battlegrounds, one by one.
By Paul Maslin [2008-05-16]

  • @ Uncle Fester

    On turnout, Pablano says he's being conservative with the numbers. But if you read the article on turnout, you'll see that he believes that polls are underestimating youth and AA turnout. They are basing AA turnout using 2004 as a baseline.

    With the first viable black candidate, there's no way in hell AA turnout doesn't increase over 2004.

    And just a 20%-30% increase in black turnout means a probable win for Obama.

    Also, no one is looking at how evangelical turnout will be lower in states like Ohio, which in 2004 had a gay marriage amendment on their ballot.

    Also, they don't factor in the expected lower turnout among some Republicans unhappy with McCain and Bush. They may be willing to punish the party with a loss to get Republican leadership back on track with conservative principles.

    -- xufapemu
    [Read xufapemu's other letters]
    Thursday, May 15, 2008 08:14 PM
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