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I've run the math time and time again. I see no way that Obama wins in Florida, Ohio or Pennsylvania and without at least two of those three in his column on election day, there is no path to 270 electoral votes and therefore no path to the presidency.
Obama also stands zero chance in Virginia, West Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Tennessee, Texas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Arizona.
Mr. Maslin in right when he points out that Minnesota is not the reliably Democratic state that it once was. Many Dems on the national level are behind the times in there perception on this one. Many Dems in Minnesota are just wet from living in De Nile. If Minnesota votes for the "Straight Talk Express", it's all over.
Michigan? I don't know what to make of Michigan, especially with the "you don't count and I won't make any exceptions" stance of the Obama campaign on the primary. But Michigan is also not the reliable Dem state that it once was. A McCain win here would not surprise me.
As inspiring as Obama may be to those who support him, the fact is that the perception among his supporters that he is inspiring to everyone (or even the overwhelming choice of Democrats in the primaries) is simply not supportable with anything like facts.
If someone can show me an Obama path -- a reasonably realistic path -- to victory in the electoral college without Ohio, Pennsylvania or Florida, I'd like to see it.
I've tried to make clear to many that my opposition to Barack Obama (forgetting the minor quibbles over healthcare mandates or the Social Security "crisis") simply boils down to this: I do not believe that Barack Obama stands a snow ball's chance in hell of winning a general election versus John McCain. If Obama is the Democratic nominee, McCain is the next president. Simple as that.
