Letters to the Editor
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Great Article
Obama can't win in Nov? It is possible that Obama could win some southern states. I don't think Hillary would at this point. The higher general trend in the south is that the more African Americans, the more Republican the state (i.e., Mississippi) - nowhere do African Americans hold a majority. However, there is plenty of reason to believe that white, evangelical Republican turn-out will be down in the south, and African American turn-out way up if Obama were the nominee. McCain lost many of these states to Huckabee. Obama may have a shot here if they can commit the resources to generate a big turn-out in his base.
I think many of the mountain states and high plains are potentially in play this year too. States like Arizona, Montana, and Colorado are more libertarian than conservative. Even states like South Dakota and Kansas seem to be shifting blue, particularly when it comes to the war in Iraq. Racism is also less of a factor in many of these states. McCain will win his home state, but may struggle in states out west that don't have a large Mormon population. His woes with evangelicals will hurt him here too.
Even in the industrial midwest Obama has strength in states like Illinios and Wisconsin. The coasts will go Democratic no matter who the nominee. So I think Obama is electable. Hillary probably is too. They both can't run though, and it's getting to be time for someone to go home with a consolation prize.