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Wednesday, April 2, 2008 12:00 AM

The Great Depression: The sequel

Is it coming to a soup kitchen near you? Here's how we'll know if the current recession is turning into something much worse.

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  • Wednesday, April 2, 2008 09:33 AM

    The notion

    that this recession will be anything like as bad as the Great one is nonsense. The recession of the thirties was preceeded by 10 years of productivity growth unknown before then or after. The 1920s saw productivity grow at an average of 5.3% per year. That's a record to say the least. The most recent 10 years have produced productivity growth of less than half that. It's no surprise that, after that record growth, inventories were stratospheric and prices and wages dropped.

    Add to that the fact that government is much more active now than it was then at the job of redistributing income downward and it's clear that this recession will bear no resemblance to the one of the 1930s.

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