Letters to the Editor
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Prediction & Control
After studying scientific research in undergrad and grad school 40 years ago I am still amazed that so many people, including scientists, think science is about "truth" or "reality" or "understanding" or "awe." But actually, scientists form explanatory models from observations of phenomena and then refine the predictions based on those models to where they are useful to make and control things like i-pods, drugs, GM seeds, airplanes and educational tools. If it doesn't predict anything it's not a useful theory or law.
This article's predictions don't handicap the bets on the environment very well and leave me with a losing wager on my own life. Whether humans are causing climate change or not sounds like a Jr. High School level argument. We need to predict and control what is happening rather than look for who to blame. In fact, it would be better if we are responsible because it means that we have a handle on climate rather than that we are helpless. But we may be helpless anyway because we have done the most insane and dangerous thing I can think of by doubling the population of America and tripling the population of the rest of the world in my short lifetime. This happened for irrational religious reasons and malevolent economic ones. Now any climate changes are more damaging and much harder to fix, and and getting harder still as the human numbers keep climbing without much concern shown in the media, including science magazines.
I am very pessimistic about the future and articles like this one make me want to bet on cars, guns, fast food and drugs in my retirement portfolio. The worse things get, the more we live like short-timers, further accelerating our own demise. But, unfortunately, that is the way to bet.
Ask any biologist, "What's the most important single piece of information about any species?" I bet he or she will answer, "Population." I wish the authors had noticed the overage of humans that killed Easter Islanders is now global.
-Hermit