This is a flabbby, speculative piece which is ginned up from stray pieces of insider gossip.

Particularly dubious is the series of assertions about the cognitive state of "Bush".

"Bush rebuffed....Bush is not committed....Even if Bush wanted....Bush would not....Bush is aware....Bush knows....Bush can also see....Bush also knows....Bush does not plan...."

Anyone who can pretend at this point that "Bush" is a rational agent deserves (let's be polite) a most skeptical reception.

he was just a little bit late with his timelines...

Iran wouldn't just be about oil. It would be revenge for the attack on the American Embassy lo those many years ago. Chancellor Cheney will teach them who's really boss. George Whore Bush will up his meds and probably have a bottle of Jack Daniels but they'll invade if they think they could get away with it, make no mistake. They have shown they don't give a rat's ass about anything but their own agenda. And the Israelis will be right there with them, claiming it's their holy right while letting us do the fighting, as usual.

They may not have much credibility but he's still the commander in chief and the military will follow him until they get fed up with him.

If Bush doesn't bomb Iran, it's because someone high up in the Administration or the military blocks it from happening. At this point, I don't think there is anyone there with the balls to stop him. Bush will bomb Iran. He'll call it some kind of targeted "surgical strike" bombing and will go in and hit several targets (presumably random). He isn't going to get the country behind it this time, because he knows they won't bite. He'll say that it was his duty to act and he'll go in there and bomb. It's the only thing he has left to do and his presidency has another 15 months. I'm guessing at about the 7 month mark, he'll make his move. To argue that he won't because it doesn't make sense is a misunderstanding of what Bush is about.

"This President is the kind of president who believes it is his moral responsibility to address serious problems now and not to leave these tough actions to a successor. "

How could anyone on Earth speak or write these words without dying of laughter or their nose bursting through the computer screen?

How could the author of this article print such a ridiculous quote without commentary?

I'd be interested to see a scenario wherein Cheney rigs some sort of provocation that would trigger a war.

I'm not saying it couldn't happen. Just wondering how.

Barring a deliberate provocation by Cheney or Israel. That's a big caveat.

For those who still believe that there is a functioning democracy in America, and I am not one of them, Bush/cheney have to know that any functioning democratic government would have to indict them for their failures on 911, war crimes and their crimes against humanity that followed the putative "terrorist" attack on America.

Starting a war with Iran and declaring a "national emergency" followed by martial law is the only way that bush/cheney can avoid the gallows and the vengeance of an awakened America.

The President is nothing if not inconsistent. Regardless of his "stay the course" approach to anything he has already started, what he might or might not do in the next moment has proven to be only predictable up to a certain point. I mean, seriously, who knew we'd all but abandon Afghanistan and the pursuit of bin Laden in order to go lay waste to Iraq? It was certainly on the Bush Wish List, but who could have predicted he'd go for it right then?

The man is capable of anything because he understands nothing. This is a wonderful opportunity for Cheney to throw him under the bus, which is what I'm convinced Goebbels, er, Cheney, has as his ultimate goal in what's left of his political life. And Cheney would want to attack Iran, post haste simply because his time is running out and Armageddon still hasn't arrived.

Given this extremely odd and pernicious arrangement (which we have all tolerated for far longer than any sane society ever would), the odds favor, I believe, a last, insane and desparate act on the part of the lunatic right, which is nominally led by the top two figures in this administration. Surely there are others, out there operating in the shadows, who believe they are pulling the strings, but if the unthinkable happens yet again, history will lay it, quite rightfully, at the feet of Cheny and Bush, most likely in that order.

If that scenario unfolds it will be soon - very soon - and it will mean all hell breaking loose in a way we have not even begun to consider.

To blow off Bush as a sensible man is idiotic. Clemons is speculating about the behavior of a human June Bug on a string held by a maniac. There is no reason to exhale yet, no reason to relax even a little. They are quite capable of striking Iran, and weak intel has never slowed them in the past. In fact, they seem to thrive on Not Knowing What They Are Doing.

The potential of a random-outcome generator would be confounded by this President. For this reason he must not be granted a single moment's peace between now and January of 2009. If we take our eye off this moron and his personal Beelzebub for even a moment, if we assume he might do the right thing, even for the wrong reason, we will pay dearly and so will most everyone on the planet.

Bush may not attack Iran, but if he doesn't it won't be based on any rational reason. It will be a lot like Hitler's decision to forgo the use of his most exotic weapons near the end of WWII. No reason is the only reason we can reliably anticipate.

A comment, perhaps an aside, though, on the graphic at the beginning of the article. There's no Afghanistan. I haven't heard it said before, though many must have, that Iran must be a great deal more skittish about us because our occupation of both Afghanistan and Iraq surrounds them. Imagine if you will radical Islam occupying Canada and Mexico; that it might make us more than usually peevish. And dangerous.

Best -

(More, for free: google "Rabid Fanatic" +"Monty Johnston")