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Wednesday, April 19, 2006 12:00 AM

Taking aim at the sleeping dragon

Imperial and imperious, the Bush administration's containment strategy for China may herald the next cold war.

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  • Tuesday, April 18, 2006 11:55 PM

    Apologia

    At least it's not a mommy article, but this is one of the most poorly researched and argued pieces on China I've ever read; and I'm in the "China business," as it were. I'm not sure who the author is, but you have to do better than take a presupposition that whatever the Administration is doing geostrategically is bad and force it into whatever shoe is handy to prove your point. The ascription of benign motive and understandable "reflexive" reaction to the PRC's leadership is just short of comic, and demonstrates no understanding of Chinese political culture or strategic planning. China's military build-up began more than a decade ago and is moving full steam ahead. In particular, the construction of what will be the largest nuclear submarine fleet in the Pacific is well under way, with only one realistic purpose: blockade, of Taiwan, of Japan, etc. China's military and the Chinese arms pipeline destabilize SE Asia; support Burma's corrupt regime and help keep Aung San Suu Kyi under house arrest; contribute to the oppression of millions of Shan, Karen, Kachin, and other ethnic minorities; and occupy Tibet. And all that doesn't even touch the severe internal repression of Muslim minorities like the Uighers and the utter lack of within China of wetsern standards of freedom of speech, assembly, religion, etc.

    China isn't evil incarnate, but is playing a very rationale, calculated, and aggressive brand of realpolitik that is increasingly frightening the pants off of Japan, Taiwan, Singapore, even Vietnam-- with which, incredibly, we may well have a military relationship in the next 20 years, coming full circle. It isn't very hard to drum up a containment policy when the countries involved are already approaching you from their own self-interest. Some measure of response is clearly necessary, and probably over late. The PRC isn't on the verge of "reacting" to U.S. containment policy; the U.S. is scrambling in Asia to play catch up to smart Chinese strategic moves. Wishful thinking and buying more plastic toys probably won't cut it 15-20 years from now.

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