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McCain's risky strategy
His presidential hopes depend on a perception of "victory" in Iraq. If things turn worse by summer with fewer U.S. troops, will he still argue for more of the same?
By Joe Conason [2008-02-15]

  • Correlation is not Causation

    Although the decline of violence in Iraq is concurrent to the "surge," it does not necessarily mean that the "surge" directly caused that decline. There may be other factors.

    1. A change in strategy by the insurgents. Laying low until the troops leave.

    2. A change in strategy the the Iraqis themselves. Trying to combat the insurgency themselves.

    3. A decline in money available to buy munitions. Even stolen munitions cause money.

    4. A "wait and see" policy to the U.S. elections. Why blow yourself up in August when you can

    achieve the same thing while alive in November?

    5. A Plan B that will call for a sharp increase in insurgent activity in the fall.

    6. All of the above.

    7. None of the above.

    I can stand on the seashore during high tide, throw stones into the ocean, and demand that the ocean retreat. My actions are correlated with the ebbing tide, but they are not causing the ebb.

    King Knut alledgedly discovered that many years ago

    -- azdirk
    [Read azdirk's other letters]
    Saturday, February 16, 2008 06:39 AM
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