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Israel took out Iraq's nuclear facilities almost ten years before Gulf War I. While Bush II was ratcheting up the rhetoric, and the IAEA was busy snooping around, Saddam decided he couldn't afford to reveal his locations another time. When Saddam closed access the reaction was predictably what the Bush people wanted. The administration is playing the same tune with Iran, and the Iranian leaders decided to take action sooner, rather than later. Iran's reluctance to make a deal with Russia on enrichment, is the a glaring symptom of Middle Eastern paranoia. The Russians were leaking invasion plans to Saddam, which means the information travels both ways.
Bush II, who is older and wiser now, has decided to accept the path his father took, and build a coaltion dedicated to the isolation of Iran. From the Unauthorized Biography of George Bush, came the assertion that Bush I nearly invited Saddam to invade Kuwait, sending signals which would encourage the ruler to make that decision. Saddam had been deceived once before by an Iranian contact who assured him a war with Iran would be short, and victory assured. The isolation of Iraq lasted more than ten years, and included regular military flights over the no-fly zone.
The purpose of the current Dubai Port deal, was a 'quid pro quo', give DPW control of our ports, in exchange for a launching pad for military forces in the UAE which would give the US control over the Straights of Hormuz. From there it would be simple enough to create an incident, cite the strategic importance of the Straights, conduct an air and naval war against Iran, and set up a UN approved no fly zone over the southern part of Iran, including the oil fields. Partly because our ground troops are tied down in Iraq, and partly because the American people are nervous about the Imperial presidency, Bush II decided to play it safe.
When the Port Deal collapsed, despite a lot of twists and turns, which were as underhanded as the deal itself, the right to launch from the UAE became only a dim possibility. Of course it was for all the wrong reasons that the Port Deal was killed. So Bush II is going back to what worked for Bush I. Will it work this time?