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Friday, October 31, 2008 12:00 AM

How Obama might just win Ohio

In the state that broke Democratic hearts in 2004, favorable poll numbers and a wave of early voters could point to victory.

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Thursday, October 30, 2008 07:21 PM

How Obama will win Ohio?

By moderate Rebublicans like my husband and I who are fed up with the vile and disgusting tatics AND LIES of the GOP and of the "Christian" Right Wing that has infiltrated and infected the party like a bad case of herpes. Christian: Now that is a word that is used waaaayyy too loosely in today's society.

We voted for Obama (via absentee ballot)a few days ago. I just got done watching his interview on the Rachel Maddow show and I was VERY impressed with Obama's responses to Rachel's questions. I loved how he said he didn't agree with the Right Wing's ideology (hint: right wing Christian nut jobs - like Sarah Palin, maybe???). I also love how he wouldn't diss the Republican party as a whole. He understands that doing so would not further any of the goals he wants to achieve if he (hopefully) is elected president. He refuses to lower himself down into the gutter where the GOP is bathing in their own blood and guts as they eat their young like the cannibals they are.

And one other thing: Has it occured to anyone that maybe Obama's alleged "ties" to the "radicals" were a result of a quest for knowledge and opinions from people who have a different view of American and its current foreign policies under the Republican reign? It's refreshing to know that he doesn't think like the typical white Christian male (Bush) that believes American can do no wrong. America has a lot of serious flaws that need addressed and fixed. Some of them have been rearing their ugly heads at the McCain/Palin rallies. I can proudly say, coming from a small town of 1,000 in central Ohio, that I broke free from the small-minded, racial bigotry that I was taught growing up. Any one of those idiots spewing hate-filled comments could be any member of my family. My family is ready to disown me over this election but I don't care. I am taking a stand for what is right and what is good. I am proud to be a Buckeye. But I am even more proud to be an Obama Voter!!

Thursday, October 30, 2008 07:40 PM

The MOST OVERLOOKED MATH that is going to surprise Republicans

In states such as Ohio that have early voting, we have to take into account that the gap between the two candidates poll numbers can be misleading for those who try to grasp how much ground McCain has make up with the remaining voters available.

Consider: where Obama has a 5 point lead in a state where half of voters have already voted, McCain has to get +10 points out of the remaining votes, not merely make-up 5 percentage points.

Let's say there are 100,000 people that would vote, divided at the moment according to the polls 52-48% against McCain - a difference of 4% points. If McCain wants to catch up, he'd need 4% of 100,000 voters which is 4,000 votes. But 50,000 have already voted. If he gained only 4% of the remaining 50,000, he'll come up short by 2%.with only 2,000 votes. McCain would need to DOUBLE the percentage number! He'd need to capture 8% of the remaining voters!

I don't think pollsters are taking this math of diminishing returns into account.

If polls show a 6% gap, and ONE THIRD have voted then the real make-up difference has to be multiplied by 33%: it would be 8% not 6%.

The deficit McCain has to make-up in early-vote-states is greater than the actual deficit showing in present-time polls. Obama's effective lead is even greater than polls show!

Shoud be a HUGE surprise to Republicans next week.

Thursday, October 30, 2008 07:54 PM

A Curse on Ken Blackwell

It's sad to think that Bush may have actually lost 4 years ago, if we Ohioans had been properly served by Ken Blackwell. I'm so glad he is no longer in a position of power.

That said, there are still a lot of McCain yard signs around here where i live (a Cleveland suburb). I really hope there are as many Obama voters as the polls suggest, but we'll see...

Thursday, October 30, 2008 08:10 PM

Early Voting

Only the Republicans would claim that early voting isn't an advantage. It certainly is! It negates voter suppression tactics that the Repubs are famous for.

Early voting allows voters to schedule a time more convenient than Election Day. Early voting shortens the time in line for those voters who do go to the polls on Election Day. Early voting allows for the resolution of any registration discrepencies that may occur. As the story indicated, early voting is fun.

Again the Republicans are trying to advance an argument that is NOT based in reality.

I suspect, because of early voters, we'll have an early election victor on Nov. 4th.

Cheers.

Thursday, October 30, 2008 08:10 PM

Why early voting matters.

Early voting matters because it gets out the first timers, young people, and minority groups who need goading and encouragement to get out and do something they are not used to doing. And since these demographics favor Obama, early voting will help him.

I suspect it will add on the order of hundreds of thousands of votes to his final tally. This will no doubt swing some states that are too close to call and win him the election.

Thursday, October 30, 2008 08:21 PM

blackwell vs. bruner

It just kills me that Republicans are claiming Jennifer Bruner is as partisan as Ken Blackwell. There is no comparison. He was simply corrupt. She is a breath of fresh air and has cleaned up the system. The only controversial thing to come up involved the ACORN voter registration fraud, and she correctly resisted the Republicans' attempt to intercept ALL newly registered voters (since January 2008) as a result.

What's ironic is that in 2004 a nonpartisan group called Reform Ohio Now put several reform issues on the ballot that were just good for democracy, and one of them included replacing the Sec'y of State with a bipartisan commission when it came to overseeing elections. Guess what? All the Republicans voted no and it failed. That was their chance, and if they'd supported it, they wouldn't be whining about a Democratic Secy' of State in charge of elections this year. They were just short-sighted, the way the Repubs have been when they increased executive power. What did they think, that Dems would never get back in? Now watch while they whine about a runaway executive in Barack Obama. They made the bed; they must sleep in it.

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