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So, Palin may have lost him Florida by turning off an important voting bloc. That seems to be a trend for him.
I also thought he lost the Philadelphia suburbs (natural McCain conservatives who want nothing to do with fundamentalist evangelicals) when he selected her. Montgomery, Delco, Chester, and Bucks are what swings the elections here. These people want low taxes and lots of police and prisons. But their homes are worth millions because their schools are strong, and they do not want nonsense like creationism.
They're aghast that their kids could be walking into Princeton interviews talking about how humans and dinosaurs shared the earth 6,000 years ago.
And Palin cannot even get him the "hard working class whites" because the economy is in the tank and Obama owns the issue. So there has not been any upside in Palin here.
I believe he lost PA the day he selected Palin. Possibly NH as well. If FL joins that list, then this has to be called the worst trade off ever. He firmed up NE and WY at the expense of major swing states. Unreal, kind of like Sam Bowie being picked over Michael Jordan.