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Obama was ahead in the polls until Palin gave her spiel at the RNC. The difference is in styles. She is more literal and that plays well in middle America who are less impressed with how articulate or inspirational a speaker is vs. how much their message conveys common sense.
The battle is between esoteric and literal minded speaking, of which blue collar people will choose the latter.
It is specifically that elitism that makes journalists and some politicians out of touch with how people will vote, and how George W Bush can come out of a debate not trampled to death.
To most of the country drilling in Alaska is too far removed from their everyday life to work up the energy to give a fuck. Gas prices aren't outside their concerns. If someone comes out and says, "Hey, we have plenty of oil, to take our dependency away from people with strange religions who blow up buildings," it plays well with the middle Americans mindset.
Someone will have to do a better job of communicating why Palin is full of shit and McCain a major golf ball.
But in the end, the national polls don't matter as much as adding up the electoral votes and the polls in those particular states.
