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ARG!
Do you really not understand that this is a deeply vacuous statement?
To compare it to sports, this is like the statement: "the team that's leading at halftime generally wins" or "the team that scores the most in the third quarter generally wins". Well, duh. A team wins because they overall score more points, so they "generally" score more points in any given part of the game too.
Pick any positive sign for a candidate; any one you like. The winning candidate will generally exhibit that sign.
Without "crunching the numbers," you know that the candidate going into the convention with the highest poll numbers "generally wins" and I'll bet that the candidate who has the highest numbers at midnight on Halloween generally wins.
