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Having lived for some time in Orange County and having spent a lot of energy trying to get a fix on Rick Warren (having lived in the midst of his "flock" for about five years), I can't help but think his main aim all along has been to find the best grip on the public's trust and move from a laid-back evangelical minister (and highly successful writer of books) to a sort of reworked Billy Graham. If I'm right, then Warren hit the real home run by setting up this remarkably smooth and interesting forum.
Let me be clear: I still haven't come to trust Warren, and I am, as from the start, very skeptical about his Saddleback megachurch (or any megachurch, but we're talking about this one). Like John McCain, Warren can be a likeable guy -- and, in fact, is generally likeable and not prone to the insane outbursts McCain has exhibited over the years. Still, he is interested in control, in power, and in herding his flock (or should we just call it a herd?) of unusually well-educated and generally upper-middle class Orange County professing Christians. But his ambitions no doubt exceed his current reach. This could be a good thing (or at least not the frightening thing Billy Graham has represented to me for nearly my entire life), but it also could be just a more palatable version of the National Spiritual Advisor. Warren's no dummy; he knows Graham is going to leave a void. I'd prefer that void remain just that: a void. But it probably won't. We could do worse than having Rick Warren hovering around the halls of power, but he is one really tough read.
As for the direct political implications of the Saddleback event, I think the candidates both did rather well, but given the locale and the setting I can't help but give big props to Obama. According to O.C. contacts, the impression left on the citizens of that reddest of red dots in a purple-blue state has been generally good, sometimes even perplexingly so. This could be a great start, the ground of Orange County being moved by something other than an earthquake. It would be nice, if essentially meaningless, to give pause to some of the most Republican of Republicans. It may not be a bellweather event, but it may well be a barometer of how things will play out in the fall.
McCain's repeated mentions of his POW experience, for one thing, seem to have snagged the attention of folks in the O.C. This I find especially interesting, as I wonder just how far he can ride that tired horse before it falls out from beneath him. Then again, I am rooting for the tall, skinny guy -- and watching Warren more closely than ever.
