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Why Super Delegates Need to Ignore Pelosi, Reid and Dean and Their Nervous Rush to Judgment
guest post by Marc Rubin
The last time a political leader rushed this county into something, we ended up in Iraq. But last week Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Howard Dean let it be known that they want the uncommitted super delegates to declare within 48 hours of the last primary on Tuesday.
In an election this close where one candidate is going to finish the popular vote winner and the other with a delegate lead of less than 5% out of 4000 delegates, (and a lead that is to say the least, tainted both by the decisions regarding Florida and Michigan and the fact that the Democrats' apportionment system awards almost as many delegates to a candidate who gets crushed as it does to the landslide winner).trying to force super delegates to make up their minds before they actually have to when there is so much to consider makes no sense.
Its an exercise in incompetent leadership which is what you would expect from someone with a lower job approval rating than George Bush which is exactly what Pelosi and Reid have. As for Dean, does the Democratic Party really want listen to what is best for winning a Presidential election from Mr. Yee Hah himself?
Pelosi needs to be told to keep her nose out of it. Pelosi and Reid have achieved what most people would have thought impossible -- they have led the Democratically controlled congress to a lower job approval rating than George W. Bush.If super delegates are to exercise any judgment at all before the week is out it should be to ignore them.
Nancy Pelosi and Reid have demonstrated that they have the political instincts of a couple of drunken sailors on shore leave on Bali on a Saturday night.
Right now all of the metrics for the fall election ( which if Obama gets the nomination is going to be renamed the gall election) favor Clinton by a mile. She performs better than Obama against McCain not only in electoral votes by a substantial margin on the RCP electoral vote map but because she creates more toss up states than he does,with many of the toss ups in McCain's column against Obama, (30 for Clinton 6 for Obama) Obama's totals aren't going to change much and give the Democrats a better chance at winning states that went Republican in 2004 than he does.
With an electoral vote lead of 38 it wouldn't take much of a swing to give McCain the election. And these maps are NOT taking into consideration the reality that if Obama were to get the nomination, 95% of Clinton voters are not going to support him or vote for him. That would change the RCP electoral map substantially in favor of McCain.
Clinton with a 61 vote lead in the electoral college is more likely to add to that lead because most of the toss up states in a Clinton McCain match up are states that go Republican against Obama. And in the important state that went Republican in 2004 that the Democrats need in November( W.Va, Kentucky, Ohio, Florida) all are in the Republican camp vs Obama but become toss ups with Clinton.
In the Electoral-Vote.com match ups the news is even better for Clinton and worse for Obama.On their map Clinton is leading McCain 327-194 with 17 toss ups with Clinton winning Ohio, W. Va, Kentucky, and Florida. The Obama map shows a close race with Obama ahead only 276-238 with 24 toss ups but losing Florida, Ky, and W.Va and barely winning Ohio. And again this map is not factoring in the certainty that Clinton voters will desert the Democratic Party if Obama is the nominee.
There is so much for super delegates to think about that for Pelosi, Reid and Dean to be pressuring anyone to make a decision after the last primary because they are afraid of "damage" being done to the Democrats chances in the fall shows that these are people more worried about not losing than winning. It also shows they are driven by fear and weakness which Pelosi and Reid have shown for two years, getting bamboozled by the Republicans.
Obama is finishing out the primary season in a whimper and momentum seems to be on Clinton's side. The metrics for Clinton keep getting better including polls which show her leading now in the Democratic preference for the nomination. This in spite of all of Obama's dog and pony shows trying to act like its over and that he is the winner.
And every day there is something else coming out about Obama that even more assuredly guarantees his defeat, the latest being Obama's recent decision to leave his church over another pastor problem. Dont forget, this is the church that Obama said when the Wright story first broke, was "not particularly controversial". It's getting pretty crowded now under Obama's bus.
More recently is the buzz about a video showing Michelle Obama and Louis Farrakhan together on a panel at Obama's non controversial Trinity Church, with Michelle Obama doing a rant about "whitey".
In other words there is a lot to think about. And a lot that can happen. Super delegates need to digest and deliberate. Two months is a long time in politics and once a nominee is picked there is no going back.
There is more than two months before the convention. Pelosi,Reid and Dean need to be ignored and all their vacuous chicken little reasons for trying to force a decision brushed aside.
If super delegates aren't going to ignore political leaders with a lower job approval rating than Bush, and rush into something when it isn't necessary, then they shouldn't be surprised that if they make the wrong decision, when the convention opens in August, the Democratic Party is going to look like Baghdad.
