I liked the idea that someone at Salon (Shapiro?) was kicking around a while ago about leaving all of the popularly cast votes in place, but taking the states' superdelegates out of the equation since they were, as leaders within the party, partly the same people who were responsible for the situation in the first place.

There was a certain justice to the idea, and it seemed to punish the right people.

But you know, whatever leads to the kissing and making up part will do just fine.

... is that it's the same penalty the Republicans imposed. McCain will not be able to play on resentment among Florida and Michigan voters, if both parties wind up treating those voters exactly the same.

At this point, whether you like Clinton or Obama, it's time to think about how we're going to come together and beat John McCain in the fall. Continued intra-party warfare won't do that.

Obama has only 43 delegates to reach 2026. He can get that in the next 3 primaries if he only gets 50% of the votes. Besides super delegates are dropping in daily. He got a WV Super delegate do today. Sort of throws water on Hillary's arguments.

He is now 200 delegate ahead of her. So first she has to catch up by 200 delegates. At this moment there are only 199 uncommitted super delegates left.

Even counting Fl & MI she cannot do it.

To think that by this time next week, there will be nothing to wait for.

I mean it's possible that the super delegates will sit on their thumbs till august, but unlikely, So after Tuesday, we can count up and declare all the votes, and then one of these noble competitors will walk off the field.

So we've got what six more days of recrimination, and over analysis?

Saturday will be interesting, especially if Obama has been sand bagging delegates as has been suggested.

We'll be able to see how many he has based on how much of a fight his people put up with on Saturday.

If they come in and say, yeah, give her all the delegates, no we don't need any, you know he's got the numbers. If they drag their feet and say, well you know we need to discuss this more, you know they are still taking each number seriously.

It'll be quite the show either way.

Obama has only 43 delegates to reach 2026.

Are you sure? I think the "magic number" increases when the FL and MI delegates are seated. I don't know how the 2026 was calculated so I can't predict how much it will increase, but I'm pretty sure it will increase.

We'll watch it burn to the ground together. It will be awesome.

Re: "Obama has only 43 delegates to reach 2026."

That's not true. Superdelegates don't cast a vote until the convention, and do so only if the convention is brokered. Neither Obama nor Hillary will have enough pledged delegates by June 3rd.

Since nobody will win by June 3rd, it should go to the convention. If nobody wins on the first round vote, the pledged delegates are released and the candidates have to negotiate witrh the delegates from scratch. The second vote includes the superdelegates.

That is how it works, but the DNC is trying to prevent it. They think that superdelegates announcing their vote on TV is equivalent to voting at the convention.

Go back and read again how the majority of people on this committee are Clinton people. That means if they decide something other than what HRC is publicaly demanding or assuming it isn't a conspiracy. It isn't the "boys" being mean to the "girls". It isn't a plot to deny the rightful candidate of her position. It means a comittee, most of whom were Clinton supporters, made a decision on what DNC rules to enforce and how to enforce them.

I'm cool with whatever the result is. Are you?

The penalty for a state party violating the party's rules range from 50% to 100% of the vote total. The Republicans had similar rules and took away half of the vote.

On the other hand, the Democratic leadership tried to threaten nuclear annihilation if Florida and Michigan didn't get into lock step with them. The reasons why Michigan and Florida broke the calendar are varied, but both states felt they were too important and tried to call the leadership's bluff. The result was the almost certain loss of these two key states for the Democrats and possibly the loss of the November election. If the leadership simply put a 50% penalty on these two states to begin with, the states would still have held early primaries, but would have lived with the penalty without complaining.

After November, the Democrats need to take a good look at their leadership. The Democratic party is way behind in its fund raising goals, the convention funding is so far behind that there is a slight chance that it may not even be held. This despite the fact that the Senate committee, the House committee, and both remaining presidential candidates are breaking fund raising records.

I know that the old saw "I'm not a member of any organized group. I'm a Democrat", but this is ridiculous. The contention with the primary process, the inability to raise funds (even the Republican party is doing better than the Democratic party in fund raising), and the other problems with infighting shows that we need new party leadership.

While technically, yes you are correct, that the super delegate count isn't official until their is a vote at the convention, that really misses the larger point.

When the superdelegates declare publicly, it makes a very strong statement. When a large enough group declare, one candidate will be considered the winner. Now yes technically no one will be the official nominee until the convention, but that is no differnt than it's ever been.

Delegates aren't officially awarded until the convention, and as Senator Clinton has pointed out even pledged delegates are not obligated to vote any particular way.

There comes a time when there is a clear majority of opinion on the subject, and at that point further campaigning is useless. Senator Clinton has a right to campaign until she is publicly humilated on the floor of the convention, as even her pledged delegates desert her because they don't want to be on record going against the clear nominee.

Now sure, if after Tuesday, there is a silence from the superdelegates, but I don't think that silence is likely.

Either they will move enmasse to Senator Clinton, to prevent further erosion of her support as the media endorses Senator Obama, or they will move enmasse to Senator Obama to finalize his presumed victory.

Now perhaps there will be a 70% split on the super delegates or somethign similar that puts Senator Clinton within reach of the nomination, but it's hard to make the argument that this is in the wings since a strong movement hasn't gone to Senator Clinton after her big wins recently.

It is entirely possible that Senator Clinton will be the nominee, unlikely, but possible. It is far more likely that after tuesday the votes will come in and a final likely outcome will be determined.