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She's still in it to win it
Despite nearly impossible odds, Hillary Clinton pressed her case for the nomination with a victory speech in West Virginia. But the election still put her one step closer to ceding defeat.
By Mike Madden [2008-05-14]

  • The biggest fallacy

    The biggest fallacy that Hillary and her supporters cling can be seen in this statement:

    "The White House is won in the swing states, and I am winning the swing states."

    I will grant her, she is winning in swing states, in a Democratic primary, not a general election. She is winning among Democrats not among voters at large.

    To claim you are winning in swing states in single party primary does not translate to winning the state in November. Lets take Kentucky for example (where this speech was made). In Kentucky, according to a Research 2000 poll, Hillary trails McCain by 12 point and Obama trails him by 25 points. So regardless, in a hypothetical matchup BOTH lose. And since the electoral college delegate apportionment is not proportional, (Except for Maine, I think), it does not matter.

    The real test is to compare her and McCain versus Obama and McCain in swing states. By her calculation, she may put some "rust-belt" states into play, but does Obama put some other states into play? I have heard no comparison to how a huge African American turnout might change the dynamic in deep south states. Or what about some of the states with a larger yuppification? The Republicans have largely been capturing suburban voters, but indications are that Obama appeals well to that demographic.

    All of this, of course, discounts that there are almost 6 months left to campaign, and anything can happen to the nominee. If it was her, will she get grilled more on her supposedly vetted past? The Clintons have a lot of political baggage to go through, so there may be some more suprises there. Would Obama implode? Maybe, since he has gotten off-message based on some of her attacks. What about McCain? Will he have health problems (not out of the question)?

    -- Hamlet_d
    [Read Hamlet_d's other letters]
    Tuesday, May 13, 2008 09:24 PM
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