Letters to the Editor
-
Exit polls have proven to be highly accurate
The american public, noted in its dislike for learning the ins and outs of statistics (who doesn't complain about having to take a stats class?), suffers for its aversion.
Folks need to understand that the exit polls conducted by the major networks for about 40 years (prior to 1992), which were well done and based on relatively small random samples, were routinely highly predictive of the final outcomes -- within a very small percentage. So precise that candidates and campaign workers complained about....their precision! And how they took the suspense out of the game!
US History is another subject in which we as citizens are notably deficient (and mostly because history is taught so poorly in our public schools). If we were all aware of our political history, it would help us recognize that the deviations we saw between vote totals and exit poll totals in recent years were NOT because all of the sudden folks got sloppy in their exit polling procedures. Rather it constituted a smoking gun and an alarm bell clanging at the same time, alarms which the media ignored and we as citizens didn't recognize as problems, for the reasons given above.
Thus I take issue with the following quote: "A cautionary note about the invaluable but imperfect exit polls: They are crude instruments that have an addictive power because on Election Night they are essentially the only game in town." The author has failed to do his research.
Exit polls are not 'crude,' but have fallen into disrepute (lately) because folks don't understand what a powerful tool they are, and that when vote totals don't match the exit polls, it is highly indicative of problems with the vote counting. Not with the exit polls, but with the vote counting.
Exit polls are a key tool for us simple voters to use to measure the integrity of those who count our votes.
I urge you to see the new movie "Uncounted: The New Math of American Elections" for more depth. It's not perfect; this movie does not give the simple explanation we all should hear over and over of the reason random sampling works, and the power of statistics to protect us from electioneering shenanigans.
For those who would like to learn more about why we should pay more attention to exit polls, I highly recommend you start here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Twky9Yzlxig