Letters to the Editor
-
strongest Democrat
My reading of the current Democratic standings is that it is virtual tie, with the momentum belonging to Clinton at the moment. I do not see Obama as inevitable.
The left wing of the Democratic Party has never elected a president. The Clintons are centerist Democrats and that's the kind that can actually win elections; Obama has the Stevenson wing sewed up, and they lose. As several writers have noted, he's also starting to wear a little thin.
I mainly want to see a Democrat elected. The press made this a two person "historic" race before the first vote was cast, and no white male had a chance. We may well be stuck with two unelectable Democrats in a year where about 70% of the voters would vote for a generic Democrat.
I'll put my money on Clinton as the better choice for the election. I'd actually prefer to see her as president because I think she's meaner; I'm looking for someone who will try to get revenge for what has been done to the country since 1980, and she has a lot to be furious about.
-
Obama electability in serious doubt!
Obama will probably win North Carolina but I doubt Indiana will go for him. Voters are beginning to wise up to the fact that his candidacy holds some major drawbacks and his electability is seriously in doubt. With Hillary polling significantly better than Obama against McCain, it would be foolish for Democrats to rally around him. It is becoming more and more obvious that his appeal has declined in the public view.
-
squalorholla, the troll guru
(if you are still here). jacksmith a troll? Roger64 a hillary supporter? (are there any actual obama trolls? or just obnoxious foul-mouthed supporters?) correct me if i'm wrong, a troll doesn't really HAVE a point of view or a candidate he/she wants elected, just wants to annoy people, yes?
-
Republicans voted Clinton in WI to Torpedo Obama
I have several in-laws who are ultra conservative Republicans in Wisconsin relatives who boasted of voting for Clinton in the Democratic primary in order to torpedo Obama. These are the same fools who use life size cardboard Hillary Clinton cutouts for dart boards.
Gee, I'm sorry the idiot pundits don't have that sort of fact based data handed to them by exit polling ...
-
@ Roger64
Maybe you can answer my query then.
"My reading of the current Democratic standings is that it is virtual tie, with the momentum belonging to Clinton at the moment. I do not see Obama as inevitable.
...
I'll put my money on Clinton as the better choice for the election. I'd actually prefer to see her as president because I think she's meaner; I'm looking for someone who will try to get revenge for what has been done to the country since 1980, and she has a lot to be furious about."
Leaving aside who is the better choice for the election, what I've been wondering is what chain of events, from here on, leads to her getting the nomination?
The only answer I've had so far is that the superdelegates all swing in behind her regardless of how the ordinary delegates end up. This seems a little far-fetched to me.
Can you see a pathway through the next couple of months that puts Hillary in front in the delegate count, or winning the nomination despite being behind in the delegate count?
I hope this doesn't sound like "trolling", I am genuinely interested in how people see this happening. Because if there's no plausible path to Hillary getting the nomination then all the debating on Hillary's/Barack's relative merits seems a bit pointless.
-
I simply (and respectfully) disagree
I'm with the earlier poster this has more to do with a certain KIND of working class white voter than it does with working class white voters in general.
Obama won them heavily in Virginia and the Potomac primaries too, and didn't do horribly with them in Texas (although the media would have you think there are no working class whites in the South), not to mention Missouri and Wisconsin.
We'll have to wait and see, I admit Indiana's going to be close, but if he does win it her argument is really blown out of the water. Remember basically all Obama's done is lose 2 bordering states Ohio and Pennsylvania. Hillary has somehow managed to convince all of you that this is somehow representative of working class voters everywhere. It isn't. It's just working class voters in 2 states.
-
Roger64
I don't know about you, but I'm looking for greener pastures, not meaner pastures.
But where mean is concerned Clinton will give you a run for your money, she bet her vote for the Iraq war, would help her out plenty.
-
Democratic deadlock
How do you chose a candidate. I personally would look to the actual number of people who vote for each candidate. Unfortunatly, that data doesn't exist. Caucuses tell one nothing about how people would vote in a primary. Michigan and Florida seemingly just don't matter to Obama supporters. When the actual popular vote is in, there will be no clear winner -- rather, each side will be able to make a strong argument. So what should the Super Delegates do when no winner exists. I don't know the answer, but saying that they should just go for Obama doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. The best article I have seen on this problem is in the New Yorker,
http://www.newyorker.com/online/blogs/hendrikhertzberg/2008/04/after-pennsyl-1.html.
In part, the article explains the current and potentially future situation as follows (note that under the authors ayalysis, the "uncomitted" vote in Michigan goes to Obama):
"Regular + Florida + Michigan + uncommitted:
Obama: 48.0%
Clinton: 47.9%
Obama’s margin: 78,217
Regular + Florida + Michigan + caucuses + uncommitted:
Obama: 47.6%
Clinton: 47.5%
Obama’s margin: 188,439
I calculate that roughly another four and a half million people will vote in the remaining Democratic primaries. If Clinton wins these by the overall margin she piled up in Pennsylvania—i.e., around ten points, 55-45—she will net another 450,000 votes.
Regular primaries:
Obama’s margin: 51,298
Regular + four caucus states:
Obama’s margin: 161,520
Regular + Florida:
Clinton’s margin: 243,474
Regular + Florida + caucuses:
Clinton’s margin: 133,252
Regular + Florida + Michigan:
Clinton’s margin: 571,783
Regular + Florida + Michigan + caucuses:
Clinton’s margin: 461,561
Regular + Florida + Michigan + uncommitted:
Clinton’s margin: 371,783
Regular + Florida + Michigan + caucuses + uncommitted:
Clinton’s margin: 261,561"