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It wouldn't be likely or easy, but if recent polling is accurate, Obama has enough strength among educated, white-collar voters in Nevada, Colorado, and Virginia to offset the loss of "blue-collar" states OH and PA.
So for example, if Obama won all of Kerry's states from 2004 (except for PA) plus NV, CO, NM, IA, and VA (all five states in which Obama ties or beats McCain in head-to-head matches), he'd win the EC vote 270-268.
Don't get me wrong. I'm confident Obama would take PA in the fall against McCain. But Obama's strengths move outside the standard "red/blue" divisions. This flexible appeal means the electoral map is much more favorable to Dems this cycle -- IF Obama is the nominee.