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Yes, and I also assume that Americans make their choices based on a knowledge of policy. As we all know, many base their votes on who they like better. So anything is possible -but that further validates the opinion that the bowling parties and bus tours ARE important.
McCain, despite being a lapdog for Bush since 2003, has branded himself a straigh-shooting maverick. And it seems to be sticking, especially since the media continues to report it as if it is true.
There is usually a change in party when the economy tanks. And, despite the fact we are "at war" (which we ARE NOT, military familaies are at war - the population in general is shopping at Wal-Mart and watching American Idol), most voters are ready to change that as well given its lackof payoff.