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More analysis and less emotion please!
Here's what we have so far based on the results:
- A lot of the Red states that Obama won were CAUCUSES. These are not represenative of the electorate in those states. If anything they are strongly skewed towards the few Dems in those states. Look at the numbers of people who voted in those states. Most of these states are NEVER going Democratic. "Obama can get rural voters" is a myth. He can get committed Dems in rural areas in these states. But the states themselves are far out of reach for any Democratic candidate.
- Obama does carry independents more than Hillary. However, he is rather weak on the Latino vote. This will matter in key swing states like AZ, NM and others in the West. McCain will likely bite into a significant chunk of those votes v. Obama. And Obama's advantage with independents and some crossover Republicans is poised against a lot of white Dems who will never vote for an African-American - it's sad but that's just how it is. McCain gives them a relatively comfortable out.
- Regardless of all the unity stuff being touted for Obama, the truth is that big chunks of the electorate are reliably Democratic or Republican. What the November vote will come down to is the 10% or so in the middle. It always does, and it's showing in the polls.
- Given the electoral college system, the above translates into a few key states. Period. Who gets the advantage - McCain, Obama or Hillary? It's really completely unclear. Hillary will galvanize the Republican base, but that same base dislikes McCain. McCain will pick up independents just as Obama will. Nobody knows by how much. Hillary will get crossover Republican women; and more of the Latino vote against McCain than Obama will. Both Democrats have the advantage of going against a pro-war candidate, and the Democratic resurgence seems to be happening in states that both Obama and Hillary have carried.
All in all, nobody ought to be placing any bets this year.
