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You are exactly right. It will come down to Florida and Ohio again. I believe that the key is to increase voter turn out for the democrats, woo independents and moderate republicans while not doing anything that will give the GOP something that it needs - a wedge issue to turn out their base en masse.
In 2004 that wedge issue was gay marriage and Rove was able to turn that into a win that we have all been suffering for ever since.
However, yes, I think it does matter who the nominee is because Obama appeals to that collection of democratic base + independents + moderate republicans in a way that Hillary does not and never will.
Hillary may win the nomination due to some chicanery with Michigan, Florida and the Super Delegates however this will only dampen those democratic voters who are already on the fence about her and completely reaffirm what the independents and moderate republicans think about her.
And so goes Ohio and Florida and so goes the presidency. Because, contrary to popular belief this election is not a lay down for the democrats. I urge everyone to remember how confident we are were in 2004. I mean did we really think the country wanted 4 more years of incompetent lying boobery? Kerry was a freakin' war hero for crying out loud!
But yet, here we are 4 years later and apparently none the wiser.
