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I wouldn't say that winning Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and soon, South Carolina. Each of these is different. Same for Michigan. Each state has it's own peculiarities so far as what it takes to win. The February 5th Super Tuesday is the first REAL test. That day is a 22 state, United States wide test. It will test:
Effectiveness of message across multi-racial, ethnic, class, gender lines. Is my message being received across these groups?
Strategic and tactical approaches to the campaign. Has Obamaistas or Clintonistas put too much emphasis on one aspect of the overall campaign? Too much money spent on messages going out to African-American or White Southern Male or Female voeters? Does micro-approaches (zip codes, known demographic data on, say, location of highest concentration of single white women)?
Does the candidate have to be present in order for the message to be delivered? Can surrogates do the prep work for candidate? (Who has the stature and effectiveness to be in one state and have a surrogate deliver a winning message for the candidate)? That means: does Obama or Huckabee have a Bill Clinton in her or his tool box?
How is money spent effectively and wisely? Has the candidates wins increased the flow of cash, or, has it plateaued, or even diminished? If donations have plateaued or dropped off prior to Super Tuesday?
Organization. Who has the best organizational infrastructure in ALL 22 SUPER TUESDAY states plus, South Carolina, Florida and the next, say, five states to hold primaries? This is a tremendous factor in winning. For Democrats, super delegates are vital to edging out the opponent, since the race now is delegates. In fact, aiming for delegates IS a strategic approach for the Dems, and in a sense, cuts down the impact of winning or losing specific states.
Obama must also, finally, have more people voting for him than say they will vote for an African-American. I'd guess he therefore needs to have 5% MORE saying they will vote for him than may actually vote for him. So, he needs, say, a 10% support showing v. a 5% showing.
