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• Wednesday, June 20, 2007 05:21 AM

  Clarity?

  The separation of Gaza from the West Bank is one of the rare moments of clarity in the Israeli-Palestinian mud fight. We now can watch and see if a totally corrupt organization (Fatah) can reform itself and at the same time watch a fundamentalist driven movement (Hamas) deal with the business of providing basic survival needs for its citizens. Fatah is going to be provided with aid from the US & the EU as well as the tax revenues from Israel - so will it stuff this largesse into the nearest Swiss Bank account or will it actually try to improve the life of its people? (That means economic investment and social services - the latter being the main path through which Hamas gained power.) Hamas is going to have to keep the water and electricity flowing from Israel, so are they going to learn to deal with their Devil or just organize a mass suicide of their population? For once - these two are going to have to chose their paths and not be able to make excuses or throw blame for their failures.

  All of this will be guided by the exterior struggle for influence in the 3 sided contest between the US, Iran and Saudi Arabia. Follow the money here carefully - since Iran and Saudi Arabia will both try to buy Hamas' soul. My money there is on Iran since they provide the military muscle (hardware and training) that Hamas needs to survive. My fear is that Iran will goad both Hamas and Hezbollah (both sacrificial pawns) into a simultaneous suicidal war with Israel. The EU and the US will just throw money at Fatah – but really, what other choice is there? (a new Oil for Food type administration for the UN perhaps?)

  But now we have a mini Taliban state in Gaza that will use the fruits of its 44% electoral victory to snuff out any and all opposition to their rule. We have already seen that they are willing to shoot and kill their own people who protest. It will be interesting to see how the residents of Gaza feel about all of this in 6 months - since they are the real losers in this mess. And the West Bank can only hope that with the nutters locked up in Gaza that they actually might get their economy restarted by learning to deal with their neighbor.

  But for now - clarity: a pliable government on one side and a rigid one on the other. Who will gain the confidence of the "people" as this plays out? Don't hope for a Knight on a White Horse though, neither of the existing two sides is in the mood for any competitors at the moment. But then, the Palestinians "never miss a chance to miss a chance", so in truth, is there any hope of things changing (except for the worse)?

  —Ironclad Read Ironclad's other letters
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