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The elephant in the room
The protesters at the DLC's convention derided them as Republicans. But the real pachyderm in the Denver Hyatt was Iraq -- a subject Hillary Clinton and other moderate Democrats don't want to talk about.
By Eileen Welsome [2006-07-25]

  • conventional wisdom is conventionally wrong

    Ms. Welsome makes the usual mistake in assessing candidates likelihood of winning the nomination 2+ years out. Since the 1956 campaign, frontrunners 2 years out did not get the democratic nomination(I'm excluding sitting presidents and vp's succeeding the sitting president)with one exsception: Mondale in 84. As Casey Stengel used to say, "you could look it up". Kennedy wasn't the front runner in 58, nor McGovern in 66, Jimmy Carter in 74, never heard of him. Ditto for dukakis in 86, clinton in 90, and kerry in 06. Front runners don't get the nomination. This far out, polling voters is a worthless predictor of likely nominees. I forecast things for a living. Betting on hillary as the nominee is a bad bet.

    -- c bird
    Tuesday, July 25, 2006 12:45 PM
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