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A minor point, perhaps, but the following passage reflects failure to accurately perform a simple mathematical analysis. I cannot help but have less confidence in Mr. Manjoo's assessment as a result.
"in the Bush strongholds -- where the average completion rate was 56 percent -- it's possible that only 53 percent of those who voted for Bush were willing to be polled, while people who voted for Kerry participated at a higher 59 percent rate. Meanwhile, in the Kerry strongholds, where Mitofsky found a 53 percent average completion rate, it's possible that Bush voters participated 50 percent of the time, while Kerry voters were willing to be interviewed 56 percent of the time. In this scenario, the averages work out to the same ones Kennedy cited: a 56 percent average response rate in Bush strongholds, and a 53 percent average response rate in Kerry strongholds."
Recall that "stronghold" is defined as a precinct in which one candidate received at least 80% of the vote. Accordingly, the average overall completion rate is not simply the average of the Bush-voter and Kerry-voter completion rates. I would expect this point should be obvious to anyone truly prepared to assess the arguments in this case.
