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Muqtada Al-Sadr is a thug - let's be clear. He is a smart thug, since he has the ability to reverse course when he meets resistance and seek and exploit every opportunity that comes his way. But he also understands that power in his country comes from the perception of strength - as well his ability to supply services through a patriarchal network of loyalties. He seems to be the most adept politician currently in Iraq performing this role - but at the cost of total & permanent loyalty to him - or else.
Al-Sadr is mainly in a battle with the other religious power in Iraq - Ayatollah Al-Sistani in Najaf. Whoever wins this struggle wins the allegiance of the Shia in Iraq which translates into control of the religious taxes there. That is the real money side of the issue. The other prize is theological control - but Sadr is much too low a cleric to grab for that yet.
If you understand this - then the other part of the story becomes clear - the Hezbollah comparison. Apt because Al-Sadr, as with Hezbollah in Lebanon, receives much support from their benefactors in Iran - the ones that really pull the strings of both these groups. If you view this struggle as Iran trying to wrest control from Sistani for the Arab part of the Shia soul (loyality to Qum instead of to Najaf), then you get a clearer picture of the situation.
Muqtada Al-Sadr represents the perfect front man for Iran - with an Iraqi nationalist face - as described well in the article. He gets what he wants - power and total control.
And he doesn't mind sacrificing his supporters to get there.
The sad part of this is that he could be doing the same thing - doling out services and helping his people without relying on his militia to do anything other than root out corruption and protect his followers. But maybe when the crunch comes - because sooner or later his militia is going to get silenced by an Iraqi government - he will reverse course again and just be a politician.
